Nebius's Growth Engine Is Running Hot — But the Fuel Bill Keeps Rising
Published on 08/13/2026 at 13:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
There are moments in a growth stock's life when the numbers stop being abstract and start becoming a test of credibility. Nebius just delivered one of those moments, and the market's response was unambiguous: shares surged 34 percent in a single session to $259.20 after the company reported second-quarter results that blew past expectations.
The headline figure — revenue up 454 percent year over year — would have been remarkable on its own. But the real story underneath is more layered. Nebius is no longer just selling a vision of AI infrastructure; it is converting that vision into contracted revenue at a pace that has caught even bullish analysts off guard. The question now is whether the company can keep building fast enough to match the demand it has already locked in.
The Numbers Behind the Jump
For the second quarter of 2026, Nebius reported revenue of $582.3 million, ahead of analyst estimates. The AI Cloud segment alone grew 514 percent to $574.9 million, now representing 98 percent of total revenue. Adjusted EBITDA swung to a positive $236.2 million — a 41 percent margin — compared with a negative $21 million in the same quarter last year. Within the AI segment, the EBITDA margin reaches 50 percent.
Those are the kinds of figures that justify a re-rating. But the GAAP picture remains less flattering: a net loss of $190.4 million, a reminder that the company is still burning through capital at a prodigious rate while it scales.
A Backlog That Speaks for Itself
What has investors most excited is not just the quarterly performance but the visibility into future revenue. Nebius reported four new AI cloud contracts, each exceeding $1 billion in value, with partners including Cohere and Reflection AI. Total customer commitments now exceed $40 billion, and deferred revenue — business already contracted but not yet recognized — approached $6 billion at the end of the quarter.
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The pricing power embedded in those contracts is notable. Long-term agreements are generating $20 million to $25 million per megawatt, while short-term spot prices are currently fetching $40 million to $50 million. Management estimates that investments pay back in roughly one year and ten months, and customer prepayments are expected to bring in more than $9 billion in 2026, covering 50 to 60 percent of planned capital expenditures.
That math helps explain why the company raised its capacity target for the end of the year from 4 gigawatts to 5 gigawatts. The annual revenue guidance of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion remains unchanged.
The Cost of Building at This Speed
Here is where the story gets complicated. Nebius plans to invest between $20 billion and $25 billion in 2026 — nearly ten times its current quarterly revenue. In the first half alone, the company poured $8.13 billion into infrastructure expansion. From 2027 onward, it intends to add more than a gigawatt of capacity annually.
That level of spending requires constant access to fresh capital. The company has already tapped the equity markets through an ATM program, placing 12.7 million shares and raising $2.8 billion. Its balance sheet shows roughly $8 billion in cash against about $8.5 billion in debt — a profile that underscores just how capital-intensive this business truly is.
The next concrete test will be whether Nebius can expand its asset-backed financing facilities beyond the current $775 million. If it can, and if the company reaches an annualized revenue run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end, the current market capitalization of €42.49 billion may start to look more reasonable. If financing stalls or construction slips, the debate will quickly shift back to cash burn.
Skeptics Are Still Circling
Not everyone is convinced. Short interest exceeds 20 percent of shares outstanding, and the annualized 30-day volatility sits at a striking 176 percent. Investor Michael Burry has reportedly built short positions in both Nebius and Palantir, with his bearish bet on Nebius reportedly initiated around the €212 level. After the post-earnings surge, that position is looking increasingly uncomfortable — a sign of how difficult it is to bet against the AI infrastructure trend right now, even when the fundamental skepticism is understandable.
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There are also operational risks beyond financing. Nebius depends heavily on high-end hardware, particularly Nvidia components, and supply chain constraints could delay the build-out to 5 gigawatts. And not everything has gone smoothly on the ground: in Vineland, New Jersey, city officials issued a stop-work order on parts of a data center project — specifically a tank and fuel cells that were apparently installed without the necessary permits. The project is part of a $17 billion deal with Microsoft, and the episode illustrates the gap between the clean curves of a stock chart and the messy reality of construction, permits, and power lines.
Where the Stock Stands Now
After the initial euphoria cooled, the shares have pulled back. The stock is currently trading around €216.60, down 3.5 percent on the day, but still up 31 percent over the past seven days and 195 percent since the start of the year. At its peak, the rally brought the stock within 17 percent of its 52-week high. It now sits about 14 percent below that high of €261, trading at €224.55 in the most recent session — a sign that resistance remains in the upper range.
The stock is trading roughly 16 percent above its 50-day moving average of €193.30, a rapid move that often calls for a pause. The 200-day average sits at €125.71, and a fall back below that level would signal that the growth story itself is being called into question.
For now, the market is betting that Nebius can grow into its valuation. The $40 billion in customer commitments gives that bet a foundation. But the company still needs to prove it can convert those commitments into physical data centers, secure power supply, and eventually deliver GAAP profitability. The next earnings report will be another data point — but the real test is happening in the months between them, in construction sites, financing rounds, and the quiet work of keeping a hypergrowth engine from overheating.
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