Nel ASA: JPMorgan Halves Its Ambition as a Legal Settlement and CEO Exit Cloud a PEM Order Boom
Published on 08/06/2026 at 16:34 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The hydrogen sector has never been short on contradictions, and Nel ASA's latest reporting period delivers them in spades. While the Norwegian electrolyser maker's order intake nearly tripled on the back of surging PEM demand, its income statement tells a far more sobering story — one that has prompted JPMorgan to slash its price target by nearly 38 percent.
The US bank trimmed its objective from NOK 2.90 to NOK 1.80 on Wednesday, keeping its Neutral rating intact. The revision lands as the stock continues to trade deep below its yearly peak, with investors left to weigh a swelling order book against persistent operational losses and a leadership vacuum at the top.
A Quarter of Extremes
Nel's second-quarter 2026 results, published on 15 July, reveal a business pulling in opposite directions. Revenue from customer contracts fell to NOK 153 million, a 12 percent decline from the NOK 174 million booked in the same period last year. The EBITDA picture was starker still, coming in at minus NOK 155 million — a figure that includes a NOK 70 million charge tied to a settlement with Iwatani Corporation of America reached in early June.
Strip out that one-off and the underlying operating performance remains firmly in the red, underscoring why JPMorgan chose to temper its near-term expectations despite the headline order momentum.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
That momentum is real, however. Order intake surged to NOK 230 million, a 224 percent jump from the NOK 71 million recorded a year earlier, with a remarkable 96 percent of new business flowing through the company's PEM segment. Whether that pipeline converts into revenue fast enough to offset the current burn rate is the question now hanging over the stock.
Cash Reserves Under Pressure
The balance sheet shows the toll of sustained losses and legal costs. Nel's cash position stood at NOK 1.328 billion as of 30 June 2026, down from NOK 1.928 billion twelve months earlier — a roughly NOK 600 million drawdown that highlights how quickly reserves are being consumed, even if the remaining liquidity still affords the company room to manoeuvre.
Adding to the uncertainty is a transition at the helm. CEO Håkon Volldal announced his resignation in June and remains in post during his six-month notice period while the board searches for a successor. Meanwhile, Samsung E&A retains its position as the second-largest shareholder, holding 167,155,785 shares, or 9.09 percent of the company.
Chart Signals and Insider Activity
The market's response has been muted at best. In German trading on Thursday, the shares slipped another 1.11 percent to EUR 0.1956, though the secondary listing showed a slightly steeper decline of 1.62 percent to EUR 0.1946. The stock now sits roughly 46 to 47 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 0.3655, a level last touched in May, and trades about 8.77 percent under its 200-day moving average — evidence of a persistently weak medium-term trend.
Technical indicators offer little comfort. The Relative Strength Index reads 38.9, pointing to soft momentum without signalling oversold conditions. Automated screening tools have nudged their rating from Sell to Hold, but with a technical score near zero, that upgrade carries limited weight as a standalone buy signal.
There was, however, a notable insider purchase back in April, when board chairman Arvid Moss acquired 100,000 shares at an average price of NOK 2.2547. Such transactions are often read as a vote of confidence, though the distance between that buy and the current price level illustrates how quickly sentiment has shifted.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What Lies Ahead
Nel has scheduled its third-quarter interim report for 21 October, a release that should clarify whether the PEM order surge is translating into tangible revenue growth. In the nearer term, the EU Commission is expected to announce the results of its "HORIZON-JU-CLEANH2-2026" funding programme in early August, in which Nel and its partners are among 170 applicants seeking support for green hydrogen production and storage projects — a potential catalyst for further order activity.
On the technology front, the company unveiled its next-generation alkaline electrolyser system in May, targeting system costs of under USD 1,450 per kilowatt for a 25-megawatt installation. It is a cost strategy aimed at sharpening long-term competitiveness, though its impact on the investment case will only become clear as the next financial reports land.
For now, Nel remains a high-speculation stock whose trajectory hinges on whether the order book's promise can finally catch up with the damage on the income statement. The JPMorgan cut makes plain that the near-term recovery path is viewed with considerable caution — and the coming months will determine whether the optimism embedded in that order pipeline is justified.
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