Nel ASA: PEM Orders Triple, Yet the P&L Keeps Digging Deeper
Published on 08/08/2026 at 03:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic at Nel ASA is getting harder to reconcile. Norway's hydrogen equipment maker booked 230 million Norwegian kroner in new orders during the second quarter of 2026 — a 224 percent jump from the 71 million kroner logged a year earlier and a 171 percent leap from the first quarter. Ninety-six percent of those orders came from the company's PEM electrolyser line, pushing the PEM backlog to 990 million kroner, up 147 million kroner in a single quarter. The total order book now stands at 1.213 billion kroner, 9 percent higher than at the end of Q1.
That is the good news. The rest of the income statement tells a less flattering story.
Revenue from customer contracts slipped 12 percent year-on-year to 153 million kroner, and while total revenue — including other income — came in at 182 million kroner, the bottom line deteriorated sharply. The net loss widened to 189 million kroner from 131 million kroner a year earlier, and EBITDA swung to minus 155 million kroner, a deeper hole than the minus 100 million kroner in Q1 and the minus 86 million kroner in the year-ago period. Part of that damage traces to a one-off settlement with Iwatani Corporation of America: a 70 million kroner payment Nel agreed to in June. Strip that out, and the underlying operational drag remains — falling contract revenue and a cost base that is not shrinking fast enough.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
The leadership vacuum adds another layer of uncertainty
Complicating the picture is an unresolved question in the C-suite. CEO Håkon Volldal announced in June he would leave for a packaging company, and while he stays on through a six-month notice period — or until a successor is named — the search is expected to run until at least late 2026. JPMorgan responded to the mixed quarter and the leadership limbo by trimming its price target on the stock to 1.80 Norwegian kroner from 2.90 kroner, keeping a "Neutral" rating. The shares closed Friday at 0.1994 euros, up 1.63 percent on the day, but remain roughly 9.77 percent below their 50-day moving average and about 45.44 percent off their 52-week high.
A pipeline that promises scale — if the margins cooperate
The bull case rests on whether the order momentum can translate into revenue before the leadership question stalls strategic momentum. The PEM-heavy mix of new bookings suggests Nel is positioning itself in the electrolyser segment where margins are structurally more attractive than in alkaline technology. The company is also pushing ahead with its PA-Series, a pressurised alkaline platform designed to cut footprint requirements by 80 percent and investment costs by 40 to 60 percent. Production capacity of 500 megawatts is targeted by the end of 2026, expanding to 1 gigawatt in 2027, with 135 million euros in pledged EU funding backing the PA-Series line. A cash position of 1.328 billion kroner at quarter-end gives Nel room to execute those plans without immediate financing pressure.
The bears, however, see a different trajectory. The EBITDA loss has deepened in each successive quarter, and while the Iwatani payment was a one-off, the underlying trend of shrinking contract revenue is not. A growing backlog does not guarantee profitable execution — if cost pressure on PEM deliveries intensifies, the loss streak could extend rather than reverse. The near-total reliance on PEM for new orders also concentrates risk: alkaline bookings came to just 8 million kroner in the quarter, leaving that segment's 224 million kroner backlog essentially flat. Should PEM order flow falter, the impact on headline numbers would be immediate.
What to watch next
The market has already priced in considerable scepticism — the stock trades nearly 10 percent below its 50-day average and roughly 45.5 percent below its 52-week high. An automated technical screening upgrade from "Sell" to "Hold/Accumulate" hints at short-term stabilisation, though such signals carry limited weight. The next real test comes with the third-quarter report, due October 21, when investors will look for two things: whether the order surge continues and whether any margin stabilisation is visible. If the order book keeps growing while revenue and losses move in the wrong direction, the disconnect between demand signals and financial reality will only grow harder to explain away.
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