Nel ASA's $20 Million Collins Aerospace Haul Won't Touch the P&L Until 2027
Published on 10/03/2026 at 10:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA has quietly built a roughly $20 million order book with Collins Aerospace, but the Norwegian hydrogen specialist won't see a cent of it flow through its income statement for years. The company's US arm, Nel Hydrogen US, landed the work in two tranches — a $12 million contract announced Tuesday for PEM electrolyser stacks that generate oxygen for life-support systems aboard US Navy submarines, followed Wednesday by a further $7 million in orders tied to submarine programmes across the United States, the United Kingdom and France. Smaller earlier bookings round out the total to approximately $20 million, a figure that also drew coverage in Norwegian media.
The timing mismatch is the crux of the story. All of these orders are being booked in the third quarter of 2026, yet physical delivery of the manufactured stacks isn't scheduled until 2027 and 2028. That gap means the Collins package will bolster Nel's long-term backlog without contributing any revenue in the quarters immediately ahead — a distinction that matters enormously for how investors read the company's upcoming interim report, due 15 October.
Bridging the gap becomes the real test
With cash from the submarine work still years away, Nel must carry its running costs without that tailwind. The operational business has to stand on its own until deliveries begin, which puts a spotlight on how the company manages the interim period. Strategic leadership adds another layer of uncertainty: the CEO succession has been unresolved for more than a month, leaving no permanent figure at the helm. Meanwhile, Nel is pushing ahead with structural changes — roughly three weeks ago it closed a partnership with Hydrasun covering European system manufacturing. Shareholders now have to weigh whether these moves are enough to keep operational capacity steady until submarine deliveries commence.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
Two ways to read the military pivot
The bull case casts Nel as an established defence supplier. Military procurement programmes run on long horizons and sidestep the swings of commercial industrial markets, and being embedded in the fleet programmes of three NATO nations gives the company a rare position. The Collins tie-up also serves as a technological endorsement: when systems are selected for life support under extreme conditions, it speaks to product quality and can open doors to follow-on marine orders. Once shipments start in 2027 and 2028, predictable, higher-margin revenue streams could stabilise the core business.
The bear case centres on the delay itself. Because no revenue from the Collins package lands next year, the deal does nothing to narrow current losses. Nel must keep manufacturing capacity running and absorb development costs while the payoff sits in the distance. Should demand in the broader electrolyser market soften, margin pressure could intensify further. Fixed supply contracts also carry cost-escalation risk across the multi-year lead time, and with the leadership question unresolved, there's no clear hand to react quickly to unexpected market shifts.
What the chart and the quarterly report will tell investors
On the market, the stock has been unremarkable. The shares closed Friday at EUR 0.1936, which leaves them 47% below the 52-week high of EUR 0.3655. As long as the price holds above the 52-week low of EUR 0.1731, the technical floor stays intact; a decisive break below that level would open the door to a fresh test of the lows.
The next hard catalyst is the third-quarter 2026 report, where the Collins order — worth around $20 million — will be officially booked for the first time. Investors will want to watch how management frames the backlog and what margin expectations it sets for deliveries beginning in 2027.
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