Nel ASA's Order Book Is Doing the Heavy Lifting While Revenue Fails to Follow
Published on 10/27/2026 at 17:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA has a numbers problem that a new face at the top won't solve on its own. Orders are pouring in, yet the cash register is ringing far less than a year ago — and that gap, not the personnel announcement, is what investors should be watching.
The Norwegian hydrogen group booked customer contract revenue of NOK 112 million in the third quarter of 2026, a 63% slide from the same period last year. Management pinned the decline on lower activity in the alkaline business. Over the same three months, order intake surged 339% to NOK 253 million, lifting the total backlog 34% year on year to NOK 1,314 million.
Those two figures tell opposite stories, and reconciling them is the central task for anyone valuing the stock. A fat order book speaks to future business; it says nothing about when that business converts into revenue, or at what margin. Treating the intake jump as proof of a turnaround would be premature — the execution simply hasn't shown up in the top line yet.
What the backlog can and cannot prove
The NOK 1.3 billion in orders is the strongest argument against extrapolating the weak quarter indefinitely. But size alone answers neither the timing question nor the profitability question. What would carry more weight is rising business activity — actual delivery against those orders — rather than another isolated increase in the backlog.
One concrete piece of future revenue arrived roughly two weeks ago, when subsidiary Nel Hydrogen US won an order worth about USD 12 million from an unnamed American technology company. The contract covers several containerized PEM electrolysers plus associated services, with delivery slated for 2027. It supports the outlook for future activity; it does not by itself lift near-term earnings. For the bull case to hold, orders like this one need to be executed on schedule.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
A second potential avenue came from a letter of intent signed around the same time with Rheinmetall, under which the two sides will examine decentralized synthetic fuel production. That could spawn business opportunities down the road, but it is not a binding supply contract and should not be valued as one.
Losses keep the optimism in check
The bear case is a lasting disconnect between the order book and operating performance. If execution fails to generate higher revenue, even a growing backlog would leave the underlying weakness unaddressed for now. The earnings line makes that risk plain: Nel reported EBITDA of NOK -93 million and a net loss of NOK -141 million. The softness in alkaline activity shows that a healthier order picture at group level does not immediately offset weak operating segments.
Nor does the US contract allow any conclusion about profitability, and the Rheinmetall review must not be mistaken for secured business. A conservative approach would give such possibilities more credit only once the exploratory talks turn into binding agreements.
A handover with a schedule
The next fixed date on the calendar is November 1, 2026, when finance chief Kjell Christian Bjørnsen is due to take interim charge of the group, with Torbjørn Berg stepping in as interim CFO. Morten Holum — currently CEO of Hexagon Purus — has been named to succeed Håkon Volldal and is to start no later than May 1, 2027.
That staggered timetable gives the company an announced leadership framework, but it substitutes for nothing on the operational side. Notably, the expected US delivery falls in the same year as the handover, which puts execution and management continuity in the same spotlight. There is no automatic link between a change of personnel and a business recovery; what matters is whether Nel can turn the stronger flow of orders into operating progress. The orders alone are not yet evidence of improved earning power.
As long as the enlarged backlog underpins the prospect of future revenue, a recovery scenario remains defensible. Should execution keep lagging that promise, the losses will weigh more heavily. The real test, then, lies not in another announcement but in the economic delivery — and investors would do well to track orders and realized revenue as two separate lines until they converge.
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