Nel ASA Wins the Orders, but Its Income Statement Has Yet to Follow
Published on 10/30/2026 at 20:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA has no shortage of demand signals. What it lacks, at least for now, is revenue to match them. That gap — between what customers are booking and what the Norwegian hydrogen equipment maker is actually invoicing — sits at the heart of the investment case heading into a leadership transition.
The third-quarter 2026 figures, released roughly two weeks ago, lay out the contrast in plain terms. Revenue from customer contracts fell 63% to NOK 112 million. Nel pinned the decline on lower activity in its alkaline business, and the growth delivered by PEM revenue and PEM orders was not enough to offset it. One segment's momentum simply could not cover the other's retreat.
Order intake told a very different story. Bookings climbed 339% year on year to NOK 253 million, lifting the order backlog to NOK 1.314 million at the quarter's close — a 34% increase on the prior-year level. New orders, however, measure fresh commitments; revenue reflects what was actually delivered and billed during the period. The two can move in opposite directions, and Nel's numbers show exactly that.
A Concrete US Order With a 2027 Delivery Date
One firm piece of the backlog came through Nel Hydrogen US, which booked an order worth about USD 12 million, with delivery expected in 2027. The customer — an unnamed US-headquartered technology company with global operations — purchased several containerized PEM electrolyzers along with services. This is a binding purchase, not a feasibility study into a possible partnership.
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The 2027 delivery window is a useful reminder of the timing issue. The order supports the forward outlook, yet it does nothing for current-period revenue or earnings.
Rheinmetall Deal Remains an Option, Not a Contract
A separate arrangement with Rheinmetall, also announced about two weeks ago, carries a different status. The two companies signed a non-binding letter of intent to explore decentralized production of synthetic fuels, combining Nel's electrolyzer technology with Rheinmetall's Giga-PtX concept. Any pilot projects or further steps depend on feasibility checks and mutual agreement. The tie-up opens a strategic door; it does not substitute for a signed order.
Losses Persist as the Backlog Builds
Earnings offered little comfort. EBITDA came in at NOK -93 million and the net loss at NOK -141 million for the quarter. A fuller order book, in other words, has so far coexisted with continued red ink. Even a revenue recovery would not by itself prove a durable improvement in profitability — that would require evidence that more business actually strengthens the bottom line.
The risk for investors is not that Nel fails to win orders. It is the unresolved question of whether, and how quickly, those orders convert into a financially viable business. Should revenue weakness persist while shareholders wait for execution, the larger backlog stays a promise rather than a result.
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New Leadership, Same Test
Management changes add a timing marker to the story. From November 1, 2026, CFO Kjell Christian Bjørnsen will take on the CEO role on an interim basis. Morten Holum is slated to succeed Håkon Volldal as CEO no later than May 1, 2027, according to a company announcement published about a week ago. Neither appointment alters the reported backlog or the latest earnings picture.
What would shift the narrative is a quarter in which the order base stops running ahead of a shrinking realized business. Further contract wins would help; on their own, they would not settle the question. The yardstick stays the same — Nel must show that stronger demand can be turned into revenue, and then into better earnings.
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