Nokia's Divergent Shareholder Moves Expose the Tension Between AI Promise and Near-Term Pain
Published on 07/31/2026 at 15:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Helsinki-based Nokia finds itself at a peculiar crossroads: one of its largest institutional holders is heading for the exits, smaller funds are piling in, and the share price keeps climbing regardless. The conflicting signals paint a picture of a market deeply split over whether the Finnish network equipment maker's AI pivot can offset the drag from its legacy telecom operations.
The stock advanced 1.80 percent on Friday to EUR 8.12, extending a recovery that began earlier in the week. That bounce follows an even sharper single-day jump of 7.67 percent on Thursday, when S&P Global Ratings lifted its outlook on the company from "stable" to "positive" — a move that sent the shares to EUR 7.98, almost exactly at the 200-day moving average of EUR 7.91.
Oaktree Cuts Stake by 40 Percent While Smaller Funds Step In
A mandatory disclosure filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission reveals that Oaktree Capital Management reduced its Nokia position by 40.3 percent during the first quarter. The asset manager sold 7,551,921 shares and now holds 11,200,308, with the remaining stake valued at roughly USD 90 million and representing about 1.1 percent of Oaktree's portfolio.
Oaktree is not alone in trimming exposure. FMR LLC reported lowering its indirect Nokia holding below Finland's 5 percent disclosure threshold under the country's Securities Markets Act. As of July 8, 2026, FMR held 4.87 percent of shares and 4.59 percent of voting rights, down from 5.20 percent and 4.92 percent respectively.
Yet the selling is not universal. Sanctuary Advisors expanded its Nokia stake by 230.4 percent in the first quarter, now holding shares worth USD 703,000. The pattern — heavyweights reducing while smaller players accumulate — mirrors the mixed signals coming from the company's own financials.
Earnings Beat Masked by Cautious Guidance
Nokia's second-quarter results delivered a beat on the bottom line, with adjusted earnings per share of EUR 0.07 versus EUR 0.04 a year earlier and ahead of the EUR 0.05 consensus. Net sales rose to EUR 4.82 billion from EUR 4.44 billion. The standout figure: order intake in the AI and cloud segment reached EUR 2.8 billion, with segment revenues more than doubling year over year.
The forward guidance, however, tempered enthusiasm. Nokia projects third-quarter sales growth of 3 to 7 percent sequentially but expects operating profit to remain flat, with the real earnings boost deferred to the fourth quarter when software revenue recognition normalizes. That timing gap helps explain why institutional investors are reacting so differently — some are locking in gains or hedging against the near-term profit delay, while others are betting on the swelling AI order book converting into sustained growth.
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A Stock Between Technical Support and Steep Declines
The technical picture is equally divided. Despite the recent bounce, Nokia shares remain 45.74 percent below their 52-week high of EUR 14.97 reached on June 3, 2026. The stock had fallen nearly 30 percent in the month following that peak. Year to date, however, the shares are up 45.30 percent, and over twelve months they have gained 126.62 percent.
The 14-day relative strength index stands at 35.6, closer to oversold territory than overbought, while annualized 30-day volatility of 69.55 percent underscores how jittery trading in the stock has become. The secondary source puts the RSI at 33.8 and volatility at 72.55 percent — both readings pointing to a market that remains on edge.
Holding the 200-day line at EUR 7.91 as support could open a path toward the 50-day average of EUR 11.32, a level that would mark a significant recovery. A sustained break above EUR 8.50 would be needed to invalidate the current bearish downtrend. Conversely, losing the 200-day support could bring the 52-week low of EUR 3.45 back into play as a serious risk.
The Bull and Bear Cases
Supporters of the turnaround story point to the book-to-bill ratio in the AI segment, which stood at roughly 3 at the start of 2026 — a substantial order backlog that could translate into revenue growth as supply constraints ease. The 2025 acquisition of Infinera has strengthened Nokia's position with North American hyperscalers, precisely the customer segment S&P cites as a growth driver for a potential full rating upgrade. The rating agency's outlook change, justified by the company's diversification away from cyclical telecom toward AI and cloud infrastructure, adds institutional credibility to the bull case.
The bears have equally compelling arguments. Rising memory chip costs have pressured margins across the industry, as recent disappointing results from competitor Ericsson demonstrated. Nokia's own restructuring charges continue to widen the gap between adjusted and reported margins, weighing on free cash flow for the foreseeable future. The stock still trades nearly 30 percent below its 50-day average, suggesting the medium-term trend remains downward despite Thursday's jump.
What to Watch Next
The coming quarters will test whether the AI and cloud order book actually converts into revenue growth — the key question for whether a return toward the 50-day and 100-day moving averages of EUR 11.22 and EUR 10.17 becomes plausible. Catalysts on the horizon include progress on the AI-RAN platform, updates on the multibillion-dollar 5G expansion contracts in India that could affect revenue booking, and whether S&P follows its outlook upgrade with a full ratings lift — a move that could prompt institutional investors to rebalance their positions.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
