Novo Nordisk Buyback Presses On as CagriSema Subgroup Data and US Worries Pull in Opposite Directions
Published on 10/22/2026 at 08:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk's capital-return machine is still running even as doubts about its American franchise weigh on the shares. The Danish drugmaker disclosed fresh purchases under its existing buyback on Monday, a program capped at up to DKK 15 billion that has been underway since February 4 and runs for twelve months. The latest notice simply documents continued execution — it neither announces a new program nor raises the existing ceiling.
That distinction matters for anyone reading the announcement as a sign of confidence. Buybacks speak to how capital is deployed, not to how medicine sales are developing, so investors have to keep capital measures and operating prospects in separate compartments.
BMO trims its target
The operating side is where BMO Capital focused. Analyst Evan Seigerman cut his price target to $40 from $47 on October 12 while keeping a "Market Perform" rating. He pointed to a tough year-on-year comparison and eroding US market share, both of which he expects could weigh on Ozempic revenue in the third quarter of 2026. The comparison is explicitly against the third quarter of 2025 — an expectation, not reported figures.
A closer look at the CagriSema numbers
Offsetting some of that gloom is the detailed readout on CagriSema that Novo Nordisk published on Tuesday. According to the company, the post-hoc analysis of the Phase 3 REDEFINE 1 trial covered 2,309 women; among those assumed to have stayed on therapy, average weight loss reached 25.0% after 68 weeks. A second analysis broke the group down by menopause stage — before, during and after the transition. Reuters reported the figures and noted that the publication lent support to the share price on Tuesday.
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Context is essential here. The full study previously produced a 22.7% average weight loss, falling short of the company's own 25% goal. The headline number for women therefore does not contradict the overall result — the two describe different participant groups. Nor does the analysis amount to a new finding for the entire trial population. CagriSema remains an investigational compound and is not approved; the work is an exploratory look conducted after the study closed.
For balance, the placebo arm in the analysis averaged a 3.0% reduction in weight. Reuters framed the results as possible support for CagriSema's potential as a successor to Wegovy.
Wegovy's regulatory loose ends
Separate threads concern Wegovy itself, and they should not be conflated with the CagriSema readout. Novo Nordisk's Korean arm has applied, according to media reports, to have Wegovy covered by South Korea's national health insurance for certain high-risk patients — people with obesity plus cardiovascular disease, and those with severe obesity. An application is not the same as an approved reimbursement decision.
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In India, an expert panel of the drug regulator CDSCO requested country-specific bioavailability and bioequivalence data, along with clinical trial data, for proposed tablet formulations of Wegovy.
What actually moves the needle
Neither the buyback nor the subgroup analysis, taken on its own, rebuts the US pressures BMO describes. The buyback shows steady use of capital within a fixed framework; the trial data point to a possible future product. The yardstick that matters is whether Novo Nordisk can contain the operating strain and turn an still-experimental asset into credible commercial ground — and whether extra insight into particular patient groups, however encouraging, can substitute for a full study result or for standalone decisions on approval and reimbursement. It cannot.
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