Novo Nordisk's CagriSema Posts Strong Phase 3 Data as Shares Retreat on Patent Cliff Worries
Published on 09/22/2026 at 06:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk finds itself in an uncomfortable position: its science is delivering, but its stock is not. The Danish drugmaker rolled out fresh Phase 3 results for its lead obesity candidate CagriSema on Monday, yet the shares still fell 7.5% to EUR 34.79 as investors trained their attention on the looming loss of exclusivity for the company's current cash cow.
The dual readout covered two separate trials. In REIMAGINE 5, a once-weekly 1.0 mg/1.0 mg dose of CagriSema produced an estimated average weight loss of 12.4% in patients with type 2 diabetes over 60 weeks, compared with 9.1% for those given 5 mg of tirzepatide. The REDEFINE 9 study added further support, showing a 21.0% mean reduction in body weight versus just 2.0% in the placebo arm.
A Strategy Day Overshadowed by Structural Fears
The data landed on the same day Novo Nordisk hosted its Capital Markets Day in London, where management laid out ambitions to launch more than five blockbuster medicines by 2030 and generate over DKK 150 billion in additional revenue by 2035. Market participants and analysts, according to Reuters, gave those targets a lukewarm reception. Concerns centered on future pricing power, potential acquisitions and the approaching patent expirations on semaglutide, the molecule behind Wegovy and Ozempic.
Sentiment had already been souring. On September 11, Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Equal-weight to Underweight while keeping a DKK 250 price target, citing muted medium-term growth prospects and heavy reliance on semaglutide ahead of the patent losses.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
The 2032 Cliff and a 38% Market Share
US exclusivity for semaglutide runs until 2032, while protection in China has already lapsed this year. CEO Mike Doustdar has called the coming expiration the proverbial elephant in the room. Novo Nordisk currently holds roughly 38% of the global obesity and diabetes therapy market, while rival Eli Lilly commands an estimated 60% — a gap that raises the stakes for the company's pipeline renewal and cost discipline efforts.
CagriSema is the centerpiece of that renewal plan. The FDA is expected to rule on its approval for weight management in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a commercial launch targeted for early 2027. In parallel, Novo Nordisk is scaling up its Wegovy tablet, aiming to expand worldwide manufacturing capacity for oral GLP-1 treatments tenfold to around 15 million patients by the end of the decade. About 1.5 million patients currently use the tablet form, with the bulk of US prescriptions coming from self-payers.
Deals and Regulatory Wins Keep Coming
Beyond its internal pipeline, the company has been busy on the partnership front. On Thursday it signed a development and licensing agreement with Orbis Medicines focused on oral cardiometabolic therapies, a deal Orbis valued at up to USD 1.4 billion including upfront and milestone payments, tiered royalties and a strategic equity stake held by Novo Nordisk. A day earlier, Novo Nordisk announced a collaboration with Anthropic to accelerate drug development and biological analysis through artificial intelligence.
Regulatory news also brought relief on Friday, when a European Medicines Agency committee recommended approval for once-weekly Sogroya in children with persistent growth disorders.
Analyst Skepticism Persists
Even with the clinical momentum, doubts remain over whether the company can move fast enough to offset the patent expirations. Sydbank analyst Soren Lontoft Hansen pointed to the difficulty of convincing the capital markets that the long-term successor concepts will deliver. The stock has now lost 21% since the start of the year, with Monday's decline adding to a 7.4% drop in the prior session.
Ad
Novo Nordisk Stock: New Analysis - 22 September
Fresh Novo Nordisk information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
