Novo Nordisk's Two-Front Fight: A Failed Heart Drug Trial and a Legal Jab at Lilly
Published on 08/04/2026 at 15:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers hitting Novo Nordisk's tape this week tell two very different stories. The Danish pharma giant's shares have been battered by a clinical disappointment that wiped out billions in market value, yet the company is simultaneously preparing to defend — and possibly upgrade — its growth narrative when it reports second-quarter earnings on Wednesday.
Shares were changing hands at around 41 euros in recent trading, having clawed back some ground after a bruising stretch that left the stock roughly 25 percent below its 52-week peak of 54.86 euros. The equity has been wrestling with its 200-day moving average, a technical support level that chart-watchers are eyeing closely; a decisive break below that marker would darken the technical picture considerably.
The ZEUS Setback and Its Fallout
The trouble began on Friday, July 31, when the Phase 3 ZEUS trial for Ziltivekimab — an IL-6 antibody being tested in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney impairment — failed to hit its primary endpoint. The drug did show biological activity, reducing inflammatory markers like IL-6 and hsCRP, but the hazard ratio of 0.99 meant severe cardiovascular events were not significantly reduced compared with placebo. In practical terms, the treatment performed no better than a dummy pill.
Danish media estimated the market reaction erased as much as 150 billion kroner in shareholder value on the day. Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen called the outcome disappointing but offered a dose of perspective: Ziltivekimab was never expected to contribute more than a small slice of company revenue before 2035. The setback does, however, remove a potential growth driver outside the obesity franchise — precisely the diversification Novo Nordisk has been trying to build.
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Management maintained its 2026 operating profit guidance but flagged a non-cash impairment charge for the third quarter. Further studies on related compounds are slated to report in the first half of 2027.
A Legal Counterpunch
Rather than retreat, Novo Nordisk has gone on the offensive. On July 21, the company filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey accusing arch-rival Eli Lilly of misleading advertising for its obesity drugs, including the recently launched Foundayo. The complaint alleges Lilly's campaigns rely on outdated clinical data, stacking the highest doses of its own products against lower doses of Novo's medicines.
The litigation underscores just how ferocious competition in the weight-loss market has become — a market projected to surpass $100 billion by the end of the decade. Novo Nordisk still holds a formidable position with its oral Wegovy pill, which launched on January 5 and has already surpassed three million prescriptions, but competitive pressure has intensified markedly since spring. Lilly's Zepbound has recently been winning the battle for new prescriptions in the U.S.
What Wednesday's Numbers Might Show
Consensus estimates for the second quarter point to revenue of roughly 71.6 billion Danish kroner (about 9.58 billion euros) with earnings per share between 4.96 and just over 5 kroner. That would represent a decline from the year-ago quarter, when Novo posted sales of 76.9 billion kroner and EPS of 5.96 kroner. Analysts working in dollar terms see EPS of around $0.77 on revenue near $10.89 billion.
The newly approved Wegovy pill could contribute an estimated 3.22 billion kroner to the top line. Berenberg believes the company may raise its full-year guidance on the back of robust Wegovy prescription trends — a signal the market is watching closely ahead of the report.
Adding to the positive regulatory momentum, the European Commission recently green-lit the Wegovy pill as the first oral GLP-1 treatment for weight management in the EU. The 25-milligram tablet with oral semaglutide is approved for adults with a BMI of 30 or above, or 27-plus with comorbidities, based on the OASIS-4 study in which patients lost roughly 17 percent of body weight versus 3 percent on placebo. The higher-dose 7.2-milligram Wegovy injection in a single-dose pen also received approval.
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A CEO's First Anniversary Test
Wednesday's report marks the first major earnings test for CEO Mike Doustdar, who marks one year in the role on August 7. Doustdar has been explicit about wanting more risk appetite from the organization and has signaled openness to significantly larger acquisitions to reduce reliance on weight-loss drugs. The failed attempt to buy biotech firm Metsera — Pfizer ultimately prevailed with a deal worth around $10 billion, or roughly 65 billion kroner — is, in his telling, merely a starting point. He has indicated willingness to pursue deals exceeding that scale.
The strategic urgency stems from the looming patent cliff for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, which expires in the 2030s. The ZEUS disappointment only sharpens the imperative to broaden the pipeline through M&A in areas like cardiovascular disease, rare blood disorders, and NASH.
Whether the regulatory wins and prescription momentum can offset the clinical setback will become clearer on Wednesday, when Doustdar faces investors for the first time with a full year of leadership behind him.
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