Novo Nordisk's ZEUS Failure Raises the Stakes Ahead of a Pivotal Earnings Report
Published on 08/01/2026 at 12:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk heads into its half-year results on Wednesday nursing the deepest single-day share price decline in nearly five months, after a closely watched cardiovascular trial came up empty. The stock slid 8.48 percent on Friday to close at EUR 40.90 in German trading, leaving the equity hovering just above a key technical support level that chart-watchers will be monitoring closely when markets reopen.
The trigger was the Phase 3 ZEUS study, whose results were released on 31 July 2026. The investigational drug Ziltivekimab, an antibody designed to reduce major adverse cardiovascular events such as heart attacks, strokes and cardiovascular death, failed to deliver a statistically significant benefit. The hazard ratio came in at 0.99 — effectively indistinguishable from placebo. Notably, the drug did lower inflammatory biomarkers including interleukin-6 and hsCRP as intended, yet that biological activity did not translate into clinical outcomes. The trial also recorded a higher incidence of serious infections in the treatment arm, while overall mortality was similar across both groups.
The study enrolled more than 6,300 patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease and elevated inflammatory markers (hsCRP of at least 2 mg/l), who received monthly 15-milligram doses of the candidate. Ziltivekimab originated from Corvidia Therapeutics, which Novo Nordisk acquired in 2020 for USD 725 million plus potential milestone payments of up to USD 2.1 billion.
In the immediate aftermath, Novo Nordisk announced a non-cash impairment charge for the third quarter of 2026, while reaffirming its full-year guidance for adjusted operating profit. Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange told CNBC that the outcome does not alter the company's strategic commitment to cardiology. The Copenhagen-listed shares fell 7.4 percent on the day, while US-traded ADRs were down 8.6 percent in pre-market trading.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
The market's reaction, however severe, leaves the stock in a delicate but not broken position. Friday's close of EUR 40.90 sits just 1.35 percent above the 200-day moving average of EUR 40.35 — a line in the sand that, if breached, would likely trigger fresh caution among technical investors. The 14-day relative strength index stands at 41.8, drifting toward territory that some models consider oversold. Year-to-date, the shares are down 7.10 percent, a notable reversal after a prolonged growth phase.
Analysts are split on how to read the setback. Jefferies and Citi both characterised Friday's sell-off as overdone, yet acknowledged the strategic damage: Ziltivekimab was meant to give Novo Nordisk a credible growth engine beyond its dominant GLP-1 franchise in obesity and diabetes, and that optionality has now been pushed well into the future. The consensus rating remains "Hold" with a price target of roughly USD 47. The roughly USD 30 billion wiped off the company's market value on Friday struck some observers as disproportionate given the drug's limited near-term revenue contribution — but the episode underscores just how heavily the investment case now rests on Ozempic and Wegovy.
Management is keeping two further Ziltivekimab studies alive. HERMES, evaluating the drug in heart failure, and ARTEMIS, in acute myocardial infarction, are both expected to read out in the first half of 2027. Those results will likely determine whether the cardiology programme has any future at all.
Novo Nordisk at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
In the meantime, the operational picture remains busy. Mid-July brought EU approval for the oral Wegovy pill and a higher-dose 7.2-milligram version of Wegovy. Late July saw Novo Nordisk file a lawsuit against Eli Lilly over allegedly misleading advertising for its GLP-1 products. The company is also running a share buyback programme of up to USD 2.3 billion, of which roughly USD 1.10 billion had been deployed as of 24 July.
All eyes now turn to Wednesday, 5 August, when Novo Nordisk reports second-quarter figures at 7:30 am CET, followed by an analyst call at 1:00 pm. Consensus estimates point to earnings per share of USD 0.81, down 16.5 percent year-on-year, while other forecasts model revenue of DKK 71.5 billion and EPS of DKK 5.04 — both below prior-year levels. The numbers will show whether the commercial momentum behind the company's weight-loss and diabetes portfolio can absorb the clinical disappointment, and whether the share price can hold its footing above the 200-day average. A break below that level would likely reopen the debate about the company's medium-term growth trajectory.
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