Nvidia's Friday Bounce Masks a Deeper Divide Between Record Demand and Market Doubt
Published on 08/03/2026 at 07:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell two very different stories about Nvidia right now. On one hand, the company's order book stretches deep into 2026, with demand for its Blackwell chips running at roughly twelve times available supply. On the other, the stock still sits nearly 14 percent below its 52-week high — a gap that has investors arguing over whether they're looking at a buying opportunity or a warning sign.
Friday offered a glimpse of both narratives colliding. Nvidia shares closed at 174.36 euros, up 2.98 percent on the day, part of a broader semiconductor rebound after one of the sector's worst monthly routs in more than two decades. The July selloff erased over a trillion dollars in market value across chip stocks industry-wide before buyers stepped back in late in the week. Yet even with that bounce, the equity remains 13.90 percent off its peak of 202.50 euros, reached on May 14, 2026.
The Demand Picture Is Hard to Argue With
What makes the pullback feel counterintuitive is the strength underneath. CEO Jensen Huang has publicly called the stock "undervalued," a claim backed by a pipeline that keeps expanding. Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta have all revised their data-center spending plans upward, racing to lock in capacity for the next generation of AI workloads. TSMC, meanwhile, is pouring capital into new packaging facilities in Arizona — a sign that the bottleneck sits on the supply side, not in customer appetite.
Analysts estimate Nvidia's GPU demand outstrips supply by a factor of twelve, a cushion that supports the valuation even when broader markets turn jittery. The company's 86 percent share of the data-center GPU market adds another layer of protection. This is not speculative froth, the bulls argue — it's pricing power backed by real orders from some of the most cash-rich companies in history.
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The Circular Financing Question Won't Go Away
Skeptics have seized on a different angle: the growing web of financial interdependencies in the AI ecosystem. The "circular financing" thesis holds that major cloud providers are effectively underwriting their own revenue by investing in AI startups, which then spend that money on cloud services powered by Nvidia chips. Reports that Nvidia could provide substantial credit guarantees for OpenAI's data-center projects in Ohio have only intensified the debate.
The comparison to the dot-com era is tempting, but it doesn't quite hold. Unlike the late 1990s, today's spending is being driven by the strongest balance sheets in corporate history. Alphabet's free cash flow did slip into negative territory recently due to heavy investment, but the strategic imperative to stay competitive in AI makes a sudden pullback unlikely. For Nvidia, the question is whether those investments translate into sustained revenue — and so far, the order book suggests they do.
Technical Signals Point to a Market Waiting for Proof
The chart tells a story of a stock in a "show-me" phase. Nvidia trades 2.59 percent below its 50-day moving average of 178.99 euros, indicating near-term pressure, while remaining 4.80 percent above its 200-day average of 166.37 euros — a sign the longer-term uptrend is still intact. The relative strength index sits at 47.2, squarely in neutral territory, leaving room for a decisive move in either direction once the next catalyst arrives.
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That catalyst may come sooner than some expect. The company's next quarterly results are due August 26, and until then, the stock will likely track sentiment across the broader chip and AI complex rather than company-specific news. The 30-day gain of just 1.47 percent underscores how concentrated Friday's bounce was — a handful of trading sessions at month-end rather than a broad, sustained advance. On a yearly basis, the stock is up 8.78 percent, respectable but far from the explosive gains of earlier AI boom phases.
Analysts see considerable upside from current levels, with a consensus price target of 262.49 euros — roughly 50 percent above where the stock trades today. Macro risks and export controls remain genuine concerns, but the combination of a full order book and a meaningful discount to recent highs makes the case for patience. Friday's rebound may have been modest in percentage terms, but in a market still recovering from its worst month in over two decades, it signals that confidence in the AI trade hasn't evaporated — it's just demanding more evidence.
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