Nvidia's Growth Story Meets Its Regulatory Shadow
Published on 09/18/2026 at 02:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Jensen Huang spent Thursday playing two roles at once — salesman-in-chief and political counterweight. During a visit to King Charles III at the monarch's Scottish estate, Dumfries House, the Nvidia chief predicted his company's chip shipments would double next year compared with the current one, crediting artificial intelligence's spread into a widening set of industries. In the same breath, he pushed back against calls for tougher AI oversight.
The doubling refers to unit volumes, not revenue directly. Nvidia is projecting roughly USD 673 billion in sales for the fiscal year ending January 2028, a 70 percent jump over the prior year. The company has not disclosed specific total unit figures; for scale, Nvidia shipped six million Blackwell GPUs across four quarters in autumn 2025. Shares responded to Huang's remarks with a gain of about two percent.
A Royal Warning, a Tech Pushback
The Scottish gathering carried a second, more politically charged dimension. King Charles cautioned the assembled AI leaders — a group that included Google DeepMind chair Demis Hassabis alongside representatives from OpenAI and Anthropic — about "existential dangers" should the technology fall into the wrong hands.
Huang's counterargument: regulate the product, not the underlying technology. AI differs fundamentally from social media, he said, which makes the social media regulatory template unsuitable. No formal agreement emerged from the meeting.
The Valuation Question Hangs Over Everything
Those growth promises land against a stock that has already run hard. After yesterday's close of EUR 191.16, Nvidia sits about 5.6 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 202.50, set only in mid-May. The gap to its 200-day moving average of EUR 170.86 stands at twelve percent — a signal that the broader uptrend remains intact even after recent slippage.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
UBS sees room to run despite the enormous market capitalization. The Swiss bank's model assumes roughly 800 basis points of margin compression through 2029/2030 and revenue growth of only about three percent annually — and even under those conservative assumptions, Nvidia generates an 86 percent return on capital (CFROI). The bank flags emerging competition from Huawei's Ascend chips and the growing roster of cloud providers building their own silicon as key risks.
Huawei Sharpens Its Own Roadmap
That competitive pressure is mounting. Huawei unveiled the Ascend 960DT at its home event in Shanghai, promising double the performance of its predecessor. Further generations, the Ascend 970 and 980, are slated for 2028 and 2029. The announcement lands in the week before a planned September 24 meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in Washington.
Meanwhile, Nvidia's own expansion continues. On September 10, the company said it would more than double its data center capacity in Australia alongside local partners, responding to rising regional AI demand. Such announcements rarely move the needle on their own, but they supply the substance behind the broader narrative.
The Cycle Argument — and Its Blind Spot
Huang has spent days repeating a core message, most recently at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology conference: demand and infrastructure needs will keep climbing, and the buildout is only just beginning. That claim is no footnote — it underwrites the entire valuation of a company now worth roughly EUR 4,415 billion. Doubt the youth of the cycle, and you must doubt the current price too. The argument is plausible, but it is a bet, not a certainty.
Less comfortable for the bullish case is a September 9 report from Reuters: the US Department of Justice is examining whether Nvidia structured its licensing agreement with AI chip startup Groq in a way that sidestepped antitrust scrutiny. Reuters noted the report could not be independently verified. That is precisely why it should be neither overstated nor ignored — a company of this size and market power will inevitably draw antitrust attention, and the risks compound even when individual probes remain unconfirmed.
On the political stage, Nvidia is visibly moving toward the center of power. Huang was expected at the state banquet hosted by President Donald Trump for China's Xi Jinping. That is more than protocol — it shows how far Nvidia has become a geopolitical factor whose China business depends directly on political relationships. Investing in Nvidia means buying chips and a slice of geopolitical exposure.
Chart Support Without a Substitute
At EUR 190.74, the stock trades 5.8 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 202.50 reached in May, and comfortably above its 200-day moving average of EUR 170.85. The long-term uptrend looks intact; the recent pullback reads more like a breather than a reversal. Still, for a company this size, chart technicals are no substitute for the fundamental question of whether the AI buildout truly has years left to run — or whether expectations have already sprinted too far ahead.
For now, the growth case carries the day: Australian expansion, proximity to key decision-makers, and Huang's consistent messaging all point to a cycle that is not yet exhausted. The Reuters antitrust inquiry, however, is a warning worth taking seriously. The larger Nvidia grows, the larger its regulatory target becomes — not a buy signal or a sell signal, but the risk permanently shadowing the story of an early cycle.
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