OHB's Billion-Euro Backlog and a Share Price That Refuses to Cooperate
Published on 08/09/2026 at 08:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The disconnect between operational momentum and market reception rarely gets starker than at OHB SE right now. Europe's push for space sovereignty has handed the Bremen-based group its largest-ever order book, the balance sheet has been transformed by a summer capital raise, and yet the shares keep drifting lower — a paradox that has split the analyst community down the middle.
A Record Backlog Built on Institutional Demand
The numbers for the first half of 2026, published alongside the signing of the EU's landmark IRIS² framework contract, show a company firing on most cylinders. Total output climbed 11 percent year-on-year to EUR 627.9 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 31 percent to EUR 60.4 million. Adjusted EBIT advanced even more sharply, up 46 percent to EUR 38.9 million.
The order backlog, however, is the headline figure that captures the scale of what is unfolding. At EUR 3.304 billion, it stands at an all-time high, up from EUR 3.067 billion in the prior-year period. The Space Systems segment accounts for the lion's share at EUR 2.566 billion, with Access to Space contributing EUR 440 million and the digital division EUR 298 million.
The IRIS² project — a 348-satellite constellation designed to give Europe independent secure communications infrastructure — is central to that momentum. OHB serves as a key industrial partner in the SpaceRISE consortium that signed the framework agreement with the European Commission. The contract represents the largest single award in the company's history, even if its full revenue contribution will take years to materialize.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying OHB SE?
The Capital Raise That Changed the Equation
What makes the current situation unusual is that the share price weakness is largely self-inflicted — a consequence of the very transaction that has put the company on firmer financial footing. The rights issue, resolved by the board in June, was executed in two tranches at an issue price of EUR 300 per share, with up to 1,702,480 new shares available. Gross proceeds from both tranches reached approximately EUR 484 million.
The equity ratio has nearly doubled as a direct result, jumping from 27.5 percent at the end of 2025 to 43.3 percent by mid-2026. Total assets grew 35 percent. The Fuchs family, which waived its subscription rights, remains the majority shareholder with 60.3 percent, while KKR vehicle Orchid Lux HoldCo retains 19.7 percent and the free float has expanded to the same level. Following registration of the second tranche, share capital is now divided into 20,827,928 shares, which have traded regularly since mid-July.
Yet the transaction carried costs that hit the reported bottom line. One-off charges of EUR 22.4 million pushed the reported EBIT into negative territory for the second quarter. With the current share price hovering around EUR 233.50 — roughly 22 percent below the issue price — the market appears to be weighting short-term dilution more heavily than the long-term opportunity.
Analysts Split on What Comes Next
The coverage landscape that has formed around OHB in recent weeks reflects genuine disagreement about the risk-reward profile. Deutsche Bank initiated coverage on Friday with a buy rating and a EUR 275 price target, arguing that OHB is one of the few pure-play European space stocks positioned to benefit from rising institutional and defense spending. The bank estimates the addressable market could grow to EUR 46 billion by 2030.
Goldman Sachs struck a more cautious tone, launching coverage on August 5 with a neutral rating and a EUR 250 target. The bank's analysts contend that much of the long-term growth is already priced in after the recent run-up. While Goldman projects total output could expand from EUR 1.25 billion in 2025 to more than EUR 4 billion by 2030, it flags risks around program execution, competition and cash conversion.
Jefferies also began coverage on August 5, this time with a buy recommendation, seeing revenue growing to EUR 2.35 billion by 2028. The firm nonetheless warns about fixed-price contract risks and a potentially high failure probability for the planned RFA ONE first launch.
NuWays, meanwhile, reaffirmed its buy recommendation with a notably higher price target of EUR 340, arguing that the balance sheet now boasts a net cash position that positions OHB ideally for the upcoming award cycle in European space programs.
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Operational Pipeline Remains Full
Beyond IRIS², the order flow shows no signs of slowing. In late July, subsidiary OHB Italia received a contract from the Italian space agency ASI for the PRISMA Second Generation Earth observation program, with Thales Alenia Space Italia providing the satellite platform and Leonardo the hyperspectral instrument. The company has also announced a technology partnership with MDA Space for autonomous lunar landings under the Argonaut project, and established the OHB Rheinmetall Space Networks joint venture for the military SATCOMBw Stage 4 satellite communications system, following German cartel approval in April.
Management has confirmed its full-year guidance: total output of EUR 1.4 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 10.5 and 11 percent for 2026.
The Technical Picture
The share price closed Friday at EUR 233.50, down 1.48 percent on the day and roughly 16 percent lower over the past month. The 200-day moving average sits at EUR 247.60, and a sustained break above that level could open the path back toward the EUR 300 issue price. The EUR 230 mark represents key chart support, while an annualized volatility of nearly 58 percent suggests swings in both directions are likely to persist.
Media reports suggest OHB could be promoted to the TecDAX and SDAX indices in September, now that the capital increase and expanded free float have satisfied the eligibility criteria. Whether index inclusion can reverse the recent share price slide remains an open question — but with the stock still roughly twice its level at the start of the year, the longer-term trend has been anything but weak.
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