Rheinmetall's €100 Billion Order Book Target Hinges on Arminius Timing as Analysts Split on Risk
Published on 11/02/2026 at 15:12 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall heads into its third-quarter report on 5 November 2026 with two very different questions hanging over the stock: whether its vaunted order backlog target is still within reach, and whether the operational momentum in weapons and ammunition can carry the quarter on its own.
Jefferies, which reaffirmed both its Buy rating and a €1,350 price target, expects a solid three months and a confirmation of full-year guidance. But analyst Chloe Lemarie is steering attention toward a less comfortable subject — the group's ambition to build an order book exceeding €100 billion. That figure, she suggests, may be at risk, and not because of any weakness in day-to-day business.
Contract Timing, Not Demand, Is the Sticking Point
The backlog stood at a little over €80 billion at the end of the second quarter. Management is targeting €100 billion by year-end, which throws the spotlight squarely onto deals expected to close in the final three months. Jefferies flags two specific uncertainties: a potentially delayed signing of the Arminius contract and a limited first tranche of orders from Italy.
Lemarie's caution is about scheduling, not lost business. Jefferies describes a timing risk on Arminius — not a confirmed cancellation. For investors, that distinction matters: the size of the reported backlog is only half the story. Just as important is which contracts Rheinmetall still expects to book before the calendar turns.
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Earnings Momentum Looks Robust
On the operating side, the picture Jefferies paints is considerably brighter. The brokerage forecasts revenue growth of 39% for the quarter and a 51% rise in adjusted operating profit. In the weapons and ammunition division, it models a margin of 26.7%, a segment Lemarie sees as a key pillar of the quarter.
Strong execution, however, would not automatically dispel the uncertainty over when the big orders land. Earnings quality and order intake are separate yardsticks by which the report will be judged. Consensus compiled by S&P points to quarterly revenue of €3.2 billion and reported net profit of €286 million — an 83% jump on the prior-year period. Those are expectations, not published figures.
A Second Voice Urges Caution on 2030 Goals
Deutsche Bank Research added its own note of restraint on 27 October, trimming its price target to €1,650 from €1,800 while keeping a Buy rating. Analyst Christoph Laskawi pointed to an expectations dilemma ahead of the capital markets day: any adjustment to the 2030 targets could weigh on profit estimates, while credible order contributions to underpin those goals remain uncertain. His assessment was explicitly tied to possible target revisions and their knock-on effect on forecasts.
Artec Order and Naval Showcase Round Out the Picture
Alongside the analyst debate, Rheinmetall disclosed that an order for Schakal wheeled infantry fighting vehicles placed with the ARTEC joint venture — shared with KNDS Deutschland — covers 35 vehicles for Germany and 34 for the Netherlands. The contract value to Rheinmetall is in the three-digit million-euro range.
The group also said on Friday that it will present its naval portfolio at Euronaval, running from 3 to 6 November 2026, including the GMF-140 frigate, the Kraken K3 unmanned drone and the MASS Nova decoy system.
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Separately, the State Security service investigated a suspected arson attack on three pieces of construction machinery at a Rheinmetall site at Kassel-Calden airport. As Tagesschau reported on Saturday, police were examining a claim of responsibility posted online. The investigation concerned a possible attack on the construction site; no confirmed findings were reported.
What the Call Needs to Deliver
Beyond the headline numbers, the earnings call should shed light on expected order intake in the final quarter, opportunities arising from the draft German budget for next year, and the planned shipyard acquisition following the loss of the F126 contract. Concrete guidance on contract timing will be the decisive input for judging the backlog target.
Confirmation of the annual goals would be a welcome signal. Putting the order book into proper perspective, though, will require hard evidence on when the outstanding contracts are actually signed.
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