Rheinmetall's Factory Floors Are Humming. The Analysts Are Trimming Their Targets Anyway
Published on 10/25/2026 at 06:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two brokerages have cut their price targets on Rheinmetall this week, and neither has wavered on the buy case. Trigon Dom Maklerski lowered its figure to EUR 1,520 from EUR 1,700 on Thursday, while UBS moved first on Tuesday, taking its target down to EUR 1,360 from EUR 1,600. Both houses kept their buy recommendations intact.
The reasoning behind the UBS cut is instructive. Analyst Sven Weier expects Rheinmetall to set conservative guidance at its upcoming capital markets day, a deliberate move to leave room and avoid disappointing the market. That is an expectation about tone, not a reported change to the company's official forecast. Trigon's adjustment points to the same event, alongside the prospect of more cautious corporate targets.
Rheinmetall has scheduled its capital markets day in Hamburg for 26–27 November. Before that, the group will publish its third-quarter 2026 statement on 5 November — a date that now carries extra weight given the debate over how much caution management will build into its messaging.
Orders Reported, but Not Yet Signed
On the operational front, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing Italian newspaper MF, that the Italian army has placed two orders with Leonardo Rheinmetall Military Vehicles, the joint venture split evenly between the two partners. The reported value of the armoured vehicle contracts is EUR 3.7bn in total. Rheinmetall declined to comment, and Leonardo's CEO did not confirm that the contracts had been signed — leaving the headline number firmly in the reported, rather than confirmed, column.
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A separate report in Handelsblatt on Thursday suggests the German armed forces are planning to procure 48 GARMR drone-defence systems from Diehl as an interim solution. The stated reason is the delayed delivery of Rheinmetall's Skyranger; the report cites integration changes and a different Boxer variant as the causes of the hold-up.
Capacity Coming Online Across Europe
While the order book debate simmers, Rheinmetall has been busy opening and expanding production. At its Expal Munitions site in Albacete, a new medium-calibre line began operating just over a week ago. Rheinmetall puts annual capacity at roughly 1.2 million projectiles and about 1.8 million cartridge cases, backed by an investment of around EUR 20m. The workforce there is set to grow from about 210 to roughly 300.
In the UK, the newly opened "UK Gun Hall" in Telford marks Rheinmetall's resumption of independent large-calibre weapons manufacturing on British soil. At full utilisation the facility is designed to turn out up to 245 barrels and more than 50 breech mechanisms a year. Breech and breech-block production started in May 2026, with barrel manufacturing following in June 2026. Rheinmetall plans up to 100 jobs at the site.
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Shipyard Deal Edges Toward Completion
Rheinmetall and MSC have jointly won the auction for the Romanian Mangalia shipyard, with a combined purchase price of around EUR 138m. Completion is expected within a few weeks, according to the company. The yard is intended to combine civil and military shipbuilding, and Rheinmetall's Naval Systems unit will help build four naval vessels ordered by Romania.
Taken together, the picture is of a company expanding on multiple fronts — munitions in Spain, barrels in England, ships in Romania — while the analyst community quietly lowers the bar ahead of two November dates that will show whether the narrative and the numbers still line up.
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