Rocket Lab's Workhorse Keeps Flying While Its Heavy-Lift Bet Slips to 2027
Published on 10/20/2026 at 15:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Rocket Lab investors are being asked to hold two ideas in their heads at once. One is a small-launch business that runs like clockwork. The other is a heavy-lift rocket that just lost a year of its schedule. On Wednesday, the company plans to send an Electron rocket skyward from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand on a mission called "We're Not Hawking Around," carrying three satellites for HawkEye 360. That is the dependable rhythm of routine operations. Whether it is enough to settle increasingly jittery shareholders is another question entirely.
The stock closed Tuesday at 44.60 Euro, down 2.7%, extending a rough stretch. Over the past seven days the shares have shed 20%, leaving them 66% below their 52-week high after Monday's close of 45.85 Euro. The retreat also puts the price roughly 25% under its 50-day average of 59.14 Euro. That is a valuation markdown, not a verdict on the business model — the market is repricing the wait, not writing off the company.
A carbon-composite snag behind the schedule change
The trigger for the selloff sits in the first stage of the Neutron rocket. Chief executive Peter Beck explained that air pockets formed in the carbon-fibre layers of a fuel dome on the booster's upper section. The part fell short of strict safety margins, forcing Rocket Lab to rework its manufacturing process. Replacement components must now be built, cured and inspected before the stage can be integrated and tested. The company says it has identified the root cause and is putting process improvements in place.
The upshot: Neutron's debut has moved from the fourth quarter of 2026 into 2027. For a company betting its next leg of growth on heavier payloads, that is a meaningful gap. Electron has proven itself a fixture in the small-satellite niche — including a twelfth launch for Japanese Earth-observation firm Synspective — but the larger market and heavier payloads only open up with a bigger vehicle. Routine reliability at the light end does not offset a year's delay at the heavy end.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?
Targets trimmed, ratings held
Wall Street's response has been surgical rather than panicked. KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock reaffirmed his "Buy" rating on 15 October while cutting his price target to $100 from $135, citing the revised Neutron timeline alongside lower valuation multiples across high-growth space names. Citizens followed on 16 October, with analyst Trevor Walsh lowering his target to $90 from $130 while keeping a "Market Outperform" rating. His read is that the delay bites hardest on launch monetisation in fiscal 2027 and 2028.
Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, restated its "Buy" rating on 16 October with a $105 target, according to media reports. Three houses, three lower numbers — and not a single downgrade among them. The message is consistent: near-term cash flows get pushed out, but the underlying thesis survives.
Contagion that looks overdone
The fallout briefly spread beyond Rocket Lab. Reports suggested peers such as Planet Labs came under pressure in the wake of the company-specific news. That reaction looks excessive. Manufacturing flaws in prototype hardware are not an anomaly in rocket development — they are the norm. A deliberate halt in the production line reflects engineering discipline, even if it stings the share price in the short run.
What matters is that Rocket Lab caught the weakness in its carbon-composite structures during testing rather than risking a failure on the pad. Investors in the new-space sector need stomachs for exactly this kind of setback.
Two jobs, one stock
The company now faces a split assignment. It must keep Electron flying at a steady cadence to protect operating revenue, while management stabilises Neutron's manufacturing so the targeted 2027 launch goes off without further incident. A robust order book supports the case that the strategic opportunity outweighs the operational delay. The road to 2027 demands patience — and at today's valuation, it also leaves room for a re-rating once the next milestones come into view.
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