Samsung's Record Quarter Is Not the Debate — the Next Two Years Are
Published on 10/17/2026 at 18:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Samsung Electronics' preliminary third-quarter 2026 figures landed about a week ago: revenue of 195 trillion won and an operating profit of 107.4 trillion won. Those are record numbers, and they sit at the center of a widening disagreement over what the stock is actually worth. The split is not about what Samsung has already earned. It is about how long the memory market will keep paying.
On one side sits analyst Lee Ju-wan, who used YTN Radio today to restate a fair value target of 70,000 won per share while arguing the stock remains overvalued even after its recent pullback. His case rests on memory prices. Lee expects them to normalize within one to two years, potentially falling back to levels last seen before April 2025 — a shift that could turn losses into a live risk again. His caution is aimed squarely at the durability of current earnings, not at the reported results themselves.
Arrayed against him are KB Securities and Goldman Sachs, both of which read the recent weakness as an opportunity rather than a warning. KB Securities attributes the selloff to thin liquidity and poor sentiment rather than deteriorating fundamentals, and points to rising profit estimates as the real signal. The distinction matters: Lee questions whether the earnings level can be sustained, while the bulls argue the selling has outrun anything the operating business justifies.
A Chinese Challenger Divides the Street
At the heart of the disagreement is CXMT, the Chinese memory maker, and how quickly it can close the technology gap. Goldman Sachs considers China's ability to do so overstated, and sees a clear lead for Samsung in advanced DRAM and HBM — enough to make the stock a buying candidate after its decline. KB Securities makes a similar point from the manufacturing side, noting in research published Thursday that Samsung is seven years ahead of CXMT on the mass-production timeline for its DRAM technology. That gap, the firm argues, translates into a process and production advantage.
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CXMT plans to unveil DDR5 products built on a new memory architecture by the end of 2026. KB Securities notes that yield, cost, customer qualification and mass production all remain to be proven — a product announcement is not evidence of competitive manufacturing at scale. That distinction blunts the case for imminent competitive pressure, though it does nothing to address Lee's broader concern about price normalization. Even Goldman Sachs, for all its positive stance, sees few near-term catalysts for a recovery.
What the Tape Does and Doesn't Say
The stock's 18% decline over the past week captures the selling pressure clearly. It does not settle which read on the memory cycle is correct. A lower share price neither refutes Lee's warning about falling prices nor validates the bull case.
Thursday's trading offered a different kind of signal. Samsung rose 2.6% as South Korean equities recovered from a seven-session losing streak, helped by gains on Wall Street, falling US Treasury yields and fresh buying in semiconductor names, according to media reports. That move was part of a broad counter-swing, not a response to any company-specific news — which limits what it can tell us, even if it does not diminish the gain itself.
The more substantive support for earnings comes from the memory market. Han Dong-hee of SK Securities said Thursday that profit estimates for Samsung and SK hynix are being revised upward, citing a tighter-than-expected memory supply and expectations of higher HBM prices next year. That is an economic driver rather than a sentiment shift — but it remains an expectation, not a realized result.
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October 29 as the Next Test
Samsung's conference call is scheduled for October 29, when full quarterly figures including the segment breakdown are due. That makes it the next concrete checkpoint for both camps, and a firmer reference point than the latest move in the broader market.
The preliminary operating profit was disclosed in a range of 107.3 to 107.5 trillion KRW. What investors must weigh is the gap between present earnings power and future price risk. The bullish case leans on Samsung's technological lead and upward-revised estimates. Lee's more cautious valuation assumes the high memory prices behind those estimates will not last.
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