Samsung Weighs a TSMC-Assisted Route Into Nvidia's Custom HBM Market
Published on 10/18/2026 at 17:22 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Samsung Electronics is exploring an unusual arrangement to supply Nvidia's next generation of memory chips: leaning on rival foundry TSMC for a key component. Reports in the Seoul Economic Daily, also picked up by Reuters, describe plans for the Korean chipmaker to have TSMC build the base die for Nvidia's NVHBM using a 3-nanometer process, with Nvidia folding a custom memory controller into that die. The talks touch only one element of the memory stack, but they put Samsung's potential role as a supplier of specialized memory to Nvidia under a brighter spotlight.
Samsung is reportedly weighing in-house production as a fallback should NVHBM demand outstrip TSMC's available capacity. That remains an option under review rather than a decided shift in manufacturing. How large any resulting orders might be is what ultimately matters for valuing the business.
Two Paths, One Dependent on Demand
The reports sketch two scenarios for Samsung: a share of the planned TSMC-linked production, and possible additional output of its own if capacity runs short. Both hinge on actual demand and on whether the reported manufacturing plans are carried out.
Citrini analyst Jukan sees Samsung as the best placed of the three big memory makers to serve Nvidia demand that exceeds available NVHBM capacity. His reasoning: TSMC must simultaneously budget wafer capacity for Nvidia's Rubin and Rubin Ultra, which may leave it unable to take on large additional NVHBM orders. That is a potential opening, not a signed order book — a favorable starting position that cannot yet be equated with extra revenue or profit.
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UBS likewise rates Samsung positively within the memory sector and names it the bank's preferred pick. It forecasts HBM shipments growing 49% in 2027 versus the prior year and considers worries about extra supply and Chinese competition overdone. The call supports the demand side of the investment case, though it is a market forecast rather than proof of Samsung's future share of Nvidia's orders.
A Bounce That Predates the News
The TSMC reports landed on a jittery shareholder base. Samsung suffered its steepest weekly decline since 2008 in the prior trading week, weighed down by concerns over US interest rates, the returns on heavy AI investment and Chinese competition.
Friday's 2.6% gain came before today's reports on the TSMC plans, so it cannot be read as a response to them. According to media accounts, the advance rode a broader recovery in South Korean stocks, helped by falling US Treasury yields and a late Wall Street rebound, as buyers returned to semiconductor names. Foreign investors turned net buyers of Korean equities, and the Seoul market snapped a seven-day losing streak. The move was part of a wider counter-swing, not a reaction to fresh company news.
Goldman Sachs weighed in on Friday, calling Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix memory plays with an attractive risk-reward profile. The broker argued investors had overestimated China's ability to close the technology gap — a direct challenge to one of the market's central worries. Other analysts, per media reports, judged the chip selloff overdone, pointing to thin buying support and weak investor confidence rather than deteriorating semiconductor fundamentals, while earnings expectations have risen on AI demand and tighter memory supply. That is an optimistic reading of the pullback, not evidence it has ended, but it separates short-term selling pressure from expectations for Samsung's operating business.
Hard Numbers as the Next Test
Reuters reported that Samsung published preliminary guidance for the third quarter of 2026 on October 8, projecting revenue of 195 trillion won and operating profit of 107.4 trillion won. Those figures are preliminary; detailed results and a scheduled conference call on October 29 are the next concrete checkpoint for gauging the business.
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Alongside that, Samsung used Wednesday's SEDEX event to underscore its long-term expansion, showcasing AI semiconductor products including HBM4E and outlining roughly 360 trillion won of investment in the Yongin complex. Groundbreaking is slated for 2027, with the first production line due to start operating in October 2029.
For now, the TSMC arrangement offers a tangible angle on Samsung's chances in custom HBM. Its financial contribution becomes credible only with binding orders and execution of the reported manufacturing plans — while the announced detailed results and the Yongin timeline give investors firmer operational markers than a single session's rally.
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