Sanofi's Earnings Upgrade Meets a Pipeline Reckoning as Analysts Split on the Road Ahead
Published on 11/14/2026 at 01:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two brokerage houses moved on Sanofi within days of each other, and the pair of notes frame the same central question: how much of the French drugmaker's near-term earnings power is durable, and what replaces it once the Dupixent price tailwind fades.
Citi lifted its 2026–2030 earnings forecasts by 5–10% depending on the year, pointing to fatter margins and a more favourable net price for Dupixent. The bank credits sharper discount management and the US 340B programme for the improvement, and expects that pricing support to hold through 2026 and 2027. Growth estimates beyond that window were left untouched. Citi raised its price target to EUR 93 from EUR 78 while keeping a Neutral rating — a higher valuation paired with a still-cautious recommendation.
The upgrade cycle began earlier in the week. BNP Paribas Exane moved Sanofi from Neutral to Outperform on Monday, with media reports putting the new target at EUR 102, up from EUR 79. That re-rating was cited as a driver of the share price gain that day, set against the positive backdrop of quarterly growth and a raised full-year outlook.
Dupixent does the heavy lifting
The numbers behind the optimism came from the third quarter of 2026, when Sanofi posted currency-adjusted revenue growth of 14.3%. Dupixent was the principal engine, with sales climbing 34.8% to EUR 5.7 billion. Adjusted earnings per share reached EUR 3.55, a 19.6% increase at constant exchange rates.
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Management used the quarter to raise its 2026 guidance: revenue growth in the low teens percentage range and adjusted EPS growth in the mid-teens, both at constant currencies.
Competition gets a timetable
Citi's caution on the out-years rests partly on rival programmes closing in. The bank expects AstraZeneca's Tozorakimab to win approval in COPD during the first quarter of 2027. Pfizer's Tilrekimig and AbbVie/Apogee's Zumilokibart are both in Phase III, with launches anticipated in 2029 or 2030. Those dates turn competition into a concrete checkpoint for Sanofi's outlook — pressure could build if the rival programmes hit their expected approvals and market entries. On the flip side, Citi flags broader drug uptake, pipeline progress and partnership deals as potential positive catalysts.
A setback in the lab
Not every development went Sanofi's way. Partner Nurix Therapeutics disclosed on 4 November that Sanofi had informed it of plans to discontinue the Phase 1 study of SAR448272 and terminate the programme — an orally administered STAT6 degrader. Nurix said the decision removes its claim to future milestone payments and royalties from the asset. According to media reports, the immediate share price reaction centred on Nurix, while Sanofi's advance was underpinned by the earnings and guidance news released earlier.
Separately, Sanofi Deutschland appointed Thomas Sauer as managing director for research and development in Germany, succeeding Marion Zerlin.
What the pipeline must deliver
The investment case now hinges on whether the existing business can carry the story once better net pricing runs its course. Acquisitions and collaborations could open further opportunities if they address the pipeline gaps Citi has identified — though the bank also counts dealmaking as a risk, alongside pricing, competition, legal and currency exposures. For the longer-term verdict, the decisive factor is what additional growth the pipeline can contribute against the competition now mapping out its own launch calendar.
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