SAP Clears Two Regulatory Hurdles While AI Acquisitions Reshape Its Profit Outlook
Published on 08/10/2026 at 11:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The regulatory clouds that have hovered over SAP's support business are lifting on both sides of the Atlantic. The European Commission formally accepted the company's commitments regarding post-sale support services for its on-premises ERP software on July 9, making those pledges legally binding under EU competition law. Barely three weeks later, Germany's Federal Cartel Office closed its preliminary inquiry into the Walldorf-based software giant without launching an abuse-of-proceedings case.
That domestic probe, terminated on July 30, stemmed from complaints filed by rival software firms including Munich's Celonis SE, which accused SAP of restricting customer and third-party access to data while favoring its own Signavio process-mining offering. Cartel office president Andreas Mundt stressed the principle that companies should generally be able to use their own data in applications from other vendors, noting that non-discriminatory data access is critical for competition on large software platforms. The underlying legal dispute between SAP and Celonis continues before a California court, but the German regulator's decision removes a significant overhang for the company's shares.
Buyback Machine Keeps Running
The regulatory relief arrives as SAP presses ahead with its ambitious capital return program. Between July 27 and 31, the company repurchased roughly 2.18 million shares on Xetra for approximately €344.3 million, at a daily weighted average price of €157.62 per share. That brings the total repurchased under the current program to 2,184,430 shares. The buying forms part of the second tranche of a buyback scheme announced in January, which carries a total envelope of up to €10 billion and runs through the end of 2027. This particular tranche, launched July 27, authorizes purchases of up to €2.6 billion until January 27, 2027. Adding to the positive signals, SAP disclosed a director's purchase by Dominik Asam on July 27 under mandatory insider-trading notifications — a move investors typically read as a vote of confidence from within the company.
AI Spending Spree Weighs on Near-Term Margins
The company's aggressive push into artificial intelligence is simultaneously expanding its portfolio and pressuring its profit trajectory. SAP closed its acquisition of Dremio, an open data lakehouse platform provider, on July 6, followed by the completion of the Prior Labs deal on July 17 — a company described as a pioneer in tabular foundation models. SAP has pledged to invest more than €1 billion over the next four years to develop Prior Labs into a leading frontier AI laboratory for structured data.
These purchases carry a tangible cost: the dilutive impact of the two July-closed acquisitions on 2026 non-IFRS operating profit will exceed €100 million, a figure already baked into the company's updated guidance. SAP now projects non-IFRS operating profit of €11.8 billion to €12.2 billion for 2026, up from €10.42 billion last year — a currency-adjusted gain of 13 to 17 percent. Cloud revenue is expected to land between €25.8 billion and €26.2 billion, compared with €21.02 billion in 2025. These figures accompanied the second-quarter results released on July 23, which also showed cloud backlog climbing 27 percent to €22.9 billion — Reuters noted the backlog rose 26 percent on a currency-adjusted basis, with businesses shifting critical finance, procurement, and HR systems onto platforms that can underpin AI applications.
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Analysts Trim Targets, Keep Conviction
The investment community has responded to the spending commitments with a mix of caution and continued optimism. Barclays cut its price target from €255 to €220 on July 28, citing near-term cost uncertainties, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating. Goldman Sachs lowered its target from €230 to €215 on July 27 but kept a "Buy" stance, with analyst Mohammed Moawalla pointing to the robust cloud subscription pipeline and strong product roadmap. Berenberg trimmed its target from €215 to €205 the same day, also retaining a buy recommendation.
CEO Christian Klein acknowledged the pressure to accelerate the company's AI product development in a recent interview with the SĂĽddeutsche Zeitung, a comment that underscores the strategic urgency behind the acquisition spree. The broader industry context is favorable: Reuters has grouped SAP with Capgemini, Sopra Steria, and OVHcloud as beneficiaries of enterprises moving from AI experimentation to widespread production deployment.
Technical Picture: Momentum Meets Overbought Signals
The shares have enjoyed a powerful run. The stock closed Friday at €178.46, up 3.35 percent on the day, and has gained 29.04 percent over the past 30 days. In the latest session, however, it traded slightly lower at €177.70, a dip of 0.43 percent. The price now sits 2.79 percent above its 200-day moving average — a sign that the intermediate downtrend that began after last August's record high has been broken. The 14-day relative strength index, at 74.8, and the RSI reading of 73.7 cited in other technical analyses, both point to an overbought condition that could invite short-term consolidation. Investors would be wise to interpret these signals as a caution flag rather than a trigger for either buying or selling.
The next earnings report is expected around October 21, when the market will see whether the accelerated cloud growth carries into the second half of the year.
