SAP Insiders Bet Big on a Cloud Recovery Even as Acquisition Costs Bite
Published on 07/29/2026 at 21:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The market’s reaction to SAP’s second-quarter numbers tells a story of two competing forces: a cloud business firing on all cylinders and a profit outlook trimmed by the price of expansion. Investors chose to focus on the former, sending shares higher even as management dialed back expectations for the full year.
The software giant reported group profit of €2.21 billion for the three months through June, a 26% jump from a year earlier. Revenue climbed 9% to €9.88 billion, while adjusted EBIT rose 7% to €2.74 billion. The headline figure that captured the market’s attention, however, was the current cloud backlog — contracts already signed for future cloud revenue — which surged roughly a quarter to €22.9 billion, underscoring sustained demand for SAP’s cloud and AI-powered ERP offerings.
Yet the quarter came with a caveat. SAP trimmed its adjusted EBIT growth forecast to a range of 13% to 17%, from a prior 14% to 18%, citing dilution from the recently closed acquisitions of US data platform Dremio, Freiburg-based AI startup Prior Labs, and data management firm Reltio. The company said these deals would weigh on results with a low triple-digit million euro charge.
The stock rose 4.09% to €163.94 on Wednesday, building on gains from the previous session and extending a recovery from a prolonged sideways trading range. Still, the shares remain 6.57% below their 200-day moving average — a reminder that the broader downtrend of the past twelve months has yet to be fully reversed.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Insider Confidence Meets a €2.6 Billion Buyback
The narrative around SAP is shifting from pure growth metrics to a debate about margins and timing. CEO Christian Klein added weight to the bullish camp by purchasing 2,052 SAP shares at an average price of €158.49 in the middle of last week. Fellow board member Thomas Saueressig had already bought shares worth €70,392 in early July. Major shareholder Harald Tschira has also increased his voting rights stake to 4.22% through voting agreements.
These insider moves coincide with the launch of the second tranche of SAP’s multi-billion euro share buyback program, which has a volume of up to €2.6 billion and is scheduled to run until January 2027. The combination of insider buying and capital return signals a management team betting on its own turnaround story.
Analyst reactions reflect the same tension between near-term headwinds and long-term potential. JPMorgan maintained its neutral rating with a €175 price target, while Jefferies stuck with a Buy recommendation and a €210 target. Berenberg trimmed its price target from €215 to €205 but kept its Buy rating, pointing to the encouraging cloud backlog as a factor that offsets the cost pressure.
The Margin Question That Won’t Go Away
The central question for investors is whether the accelerating cloud growth can compensate for rising costs tied to the AI offensive and the integration of newly acquired businesses. The lowered profit guidance makes clear that investments in Dremio and Prior Labs are squeezing margins in the near term. How quickly the cloud backlog converts into recognized revenue — and how disciplined management proves in managing integration expenses — will determine whether the second half of the year brings relief.
The stock’s recent volatility reflects this uncertainty. On Tuesday, broader concerns about AI-driven valuations weighed on European tech stocks, while geopolitical tensions around Iran pushed oil prices to $88.06 a barrel and dragged the Nasdaq 100 down 1.74% to 27,278.90 points. The DAX closed nearly flat at 25,460.48 points, with SAP’s results providing a stabilizing force.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For the bears, the lowered profit forecast is a warning that integration costs could overshoot, potentially triggering another guidance cut. The stock’s distance from its 200-day average — 8.80% below, according to one calculation — suggests the recovery has yet to break the medium-term downtrend. If cloud growth slows in the second half while the cost base rises structurally from AI investments, profitability could come under more pressure than the market currently prices in.
What Comes Next
The next concrete test arrives on October 21, when SAP reports third-quarter results. Until then, investors will watch the progress of the buyback program and look for further signals on cloud backlog conversion. For now, the bull case rests on maintaining currency-adjusted cloud growth near the 24% reported in the second quarter, while keeping adjusted EBIT within the lowered range of €11.8 billion to €12.2 billion. If those conditions hold, the path to analyst targets between €205 and €210 remains realistic. If costs spiral, the stock could drift back toward its 200-day moving average rather than breaking decisively higher.
SAP’s free cash flow of €3 billion and net liquidity exceeding €10 billion provide a cushion to absorb the integration costs without straining the balance sheet. The question is whether that financial firepower translates into margin expansion once the acquisition noise fades — or whether the market’s patience runs out first.
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