SAP's €344 Million Buyback Week Masks a More Nuanced Picture for Europe's Software Giant
Published on 08/05/2026 at 10:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The buyback machine at SAP is running at full throttle. Between July 27 and July 31, the Walldorf-based software group repurchased 2,184,430 of its own shares at an average price of €157.62, shelling out roughly €344.3 million in the process. For a management team that has watched the stock drift lower over the past twelve months, it amounts to a fairly unambiguous statement: the equity is cheap at these levels.
What makes the timing noteworthy is what else was happening in the background. The same week the buyback was executed, SAP closed two acquisitions — data-integration specialist Dremio and German AI startup Prior Labs — and the market was still digesting a guidance revision that had accompanied the second-quarter numbers. The deals, announced back in May, are designed to bolster the SAP Business Data Cloud and the company's in-house AI model research, but they come with a near-term cost. SAP now guides for non-IFRS operating profit of €11.8 billion to €12.2 billion in 2026, shaved from the previous range of €11.9 billion to €12.3 billion, with dilution and integration expenses cited as the culprits.
The Cloud Engine Keeps Humming
Strip away the guidance tweak, however, and the underlying mechanics of the business look decidedly healthier. Cloud revenue climbed 22 percent to €6.28 billion in the second quarter, or 24 percent on a currency-adjusted basis. The current cloud backlog — the contracted revenue secured for the next twelve months — hit a record €22.9 billion, up 27 percent year over year. That order book is the metric analysts keep circling back to, and for good reason: it suggests the demand for SAP's cloud products remains resilient even as the broader macroeconomic environment has turned less forgiving.
There is a flip side, though. The legacy license business is shrinking at a dramatic clip, with software license revenue down 32 percent to just €0.13 billion. The transformation from traditional software vendor to cloud subscription model is proceeding apace, but it is not frictionless — and the margin pressure from that transition is now visible in the lowered profit outlook.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Regulatory Clouds Part
Adding to the more constructive tone was a decision from Germany's Federal Cartel Office, which closed its preliminary investigation into SAP without finding sufficient evidence of market power abuse. The probe had been triggered in part by complaints from competitor Celonis over alleged hindrance of data exports. For months, the regulatory uncertainty hung over the stock like a Damocles sword; its removal clears a meaningful overhang.
Insiders Put Their Money Where Their Mouth Is
CEO Christian Klein has also been backing the story with his own capital. Late July saw him acquire SAP shares worth €325,219 at an average price of €133.60 — a purchase that, alongside the corporate buyback, signals confidence from those closest to the strategy. The founder families are consolidating their position too: Harald Tschira's stake rose to 4.22 percent from 0.57 percent, while Udo Tschira now holds 4.19 percent, up from 0.54 percent, following new voting agreements.
Sell-side sentiment has turned supportive as well. Jefferies reaffirmed its "Buy" rating with a €210 price target on July 28, pointing to the better-than-expected cloud backlog. The DZ Bank, meanwhile, flagged technical recovery potential toward €190.98 after the stock crossed its 200-day moving average at €168.00 — though that call was made before the average itself shifted.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
A Stock Caught Between Momentum and Caution
The share price has been staging a recovery, trading at €170.08 on Wednesday with a 0.76 percent gain. Yet the picture is more layered than the recent uptick suggests. The stock sits roughly 2 percent below its 200-day moving average of €173.72, and the 14-day relative strength index has climbed to 70.4 — a reading that signals overbought conditions in the near term and could give momentum traders pause. Year-to-date, the shares remain down 19.43 percent, a reminder of how far the recovery still has to travel.
What the market is effectively weighing is a simple trade-off: the operational momentum in the cloud business against the short-term drag from acquisition-related costs and a more conservative profit outlook. The next data point to settle that debate arrives on October 21, when SAP reports third-quarter figures. Until then, the buybacks, the regulatory all-clear, and the insider purchases provide a supportive floor — but the overbought technicals suggest the easy gains may already be banked.
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