SAP's Double Catalyst: Antitrust All-Clear and a Fresh Buyback Tranche
Published on 08/03/2026 at 17:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The stars aligned for SAP shareholders on Monday, as two developments converged to deliver the software giant's strongest single-day showing in recent memory. Germany's Federal Cartel Office dropped its abuse-of-proceedings case against the Walldorf-based company without imposing any conditions, while management simultaneously fired the starting gun on the second installment of its 2026 share repurchase program. The market's verdict was swift: shares climbed 3.48 percent to €164.94, building on Friday's close of €159.40.
Regulatory Shadow Lifts
The antitrust probe, triggered by a complaint from competitor Celonis, had alleged that SAP was improperly restricting third-party access to data housed in its ERP systems. Following a thorough review, the competition authority concluded there was insufficient evidence to substantiate claims of market abuse. For SAP, the dismissal removes a persistent overhang that had weighed on investor sentiment in recent months.
Capital Returns Take Center Stage
The newly launched buyback tranche carries a volume of up to €2.6 billion—roughly 18.5 million shares—and forms part of a broader €10 billion program slated to run through the end of 2027. The message to the market is unambiguous: despite integration costs stemming from recent acquisitions, the board sees ample financial headroom to keep rewarding shareholders.
Adding to the positive signals, the founding family demonstrated renewed cohesion. Harald Tschira raised his voting stake from 0.57 percent to 4.22 percent on Friday through new binding agreements within the shareholder family—an arrangement that consolidates influence among long-term owners without drawing in outside capital.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Cloud Momentum Meets Margin Caution
Underpinning the recent share price strength are the second-quarter results published on July 23. Cloud revenue surged 22 percent to €6.28 billion, or 24 percent on a currency-adjusted basis. The current cloud backlog—a key forward-looking metric—expanded 27 percent to €22.9 billion, comfortably exceeding analyst expectations. Non-IFRS operating profit rose 7 percent to €2.74 billion.
Yet the quarter was not without its blemishes. SAP trimmed its full-year non-IFRS operating profit guidance to a range of €11.8 billion to €12.2 billion, down from the previous €11.9 billion to €12.3 billion. Management attributed the adjustment to integration costs and dilution effects from the acquisitions of Dremio and Prior Labs. The Dremio deal, completed on July 6, is designed to bolster SAP's data-fabric architecture, with the transaction expected to fully close during the third quarter.
Insider Confidence and Divergent Analyst Views
CEO Christian Klein put his money where his mouth is, purchasing SAP shares on July 24 worth €325,219 at an average price of €133.60—a transaction that investors often interpret as a vote of confidence in the company's strategic direction.
Wall Street's reaction to the quarterly numbers, however, was anything but uniform. Goldman Sachs trimmed its price target from €230 to €215 on July 27 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, citing short-term margin dilution from acquisitions alongside robust cloud growth. Jefferies reaffirmed its "Buy" stance with a €210 target on the same day, pointing to the stronger-than-expected cloud backlog. Berenberg and Deutsche Bank also weighed in with "Buy" ratings and targets of €205 and €200 respectively.
The bearish camp found its voice at DZ Bank, which slashed its target to €120 and expressed skepticism about near-term profitability following the recent spending spree. JPMorgan held firm at "Neutral" with a €175 target, signaling that the stock's valuation after its recent advance is no longer universally embraced.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Road Ahead
Despite Monday's rally, the shares remain 5.40 percent below their 200-day moving average of €174.35, and a staggering 38.15 percent off the 52-week high of €257.70 reached in August 2025. The stock has nonetheless gained 14.30 percent over the past 30 days, suggesting momentum is building.
Investors won't have to wait long for the next data point: SAP reports third-quarter results on October 21, which will offer fresh evidence on whether the cloud growth engine and the buyback strategy can sustain their combined force.
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