SAP's Rally Splits the Street: A 90-Euro Chasm Between Bulls and Bears
Published on 08/06/2026 at 12:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The most striking thing about SAP's current predicament isn't the 20 percent surge in its share price — it's the fact that two reputable houses can look at the same company and arrive at conclusions that are nearly 90 euros apart. Jefferies sees a stock worth 210 euros. DZ Bank's Armin Kremser, by contrast, has trimmed his target to 120 euros with a "Sell" rating. That gulf captures the central tension animating the stock: a record cloud backlog and a disciplined AI strategy on one side, margin dilution and technical overheating on the other.
The Numbers That Anchor the Bull Case
Start with what's beyond dispute. SAP's second-quarter results, published on July 23, showed cloud revenue climbing 22 percent to 6.28 billion euros, while the current cloud backlog — the metric that best signals future revenue — expanded 27 percent to 22.9 billion euros. Non-IFRS operating profit rose 7 percent to 2.74 billion euros. For bulls, that backlog is the story: it's structural rather than a one-off quarterly surprise.
The acquisition spree added another layer on July 27, when SAP finalized its purchases of AI specialists Dremio and Prior Labs, folding both into its "Business AI" platform. The strategic logic is clear — broaden the AI portfolio rather than merely talk about it. But there's a visible cost: management trimmed its 2026 non-IFRS operating profit guidance to 11.8–12.2 billion euros from 11.9–12.3 billion, citing dilution from the deals. Not an alarm bell, but a reminder that acquisitive growth eats into margin in the near term.
A Counter-Narrative to the US AI Arms Race
SAP's positioning extends beyond M&A. CEO Christian Klein used an August 5 appearance to warn against blind AI euphoria, arguing that value creation comes from concrete application in enterprise software, not raw computing capacity. The market took it in stride — the stock closed at 170.00 euros that Wednesday, up 0.51 percent.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The contrast with the US hyperscalers is instructive. Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle have racked up a combined 1.09 trillion US dollars in data-center leasing commitments, and Oracle is wrestling with debt at 4.3 times EBITDA and a negative outlook from rating agencies. SAP's answer is industrial networks rather than ever-larger server farms. A Thursday webinar on its "Industry Network for Automotive" showcased Catena-X, the company's data infrastructure for the auto sector, alongside the "Data Space Accelerator Program" and new certificate-management tools. The message: in Europe, AI is first a data problem — solve that, and the investment pays off. Use cases like the Digital Product Passport and Product Carbon Footprint Management promise direct industrial utility rather than sheer compute.
The Technical Picture Is Less Forgiving
The share price has recovered impressively — up 19 percent from its 30-day low, closing at 171.56 euros with a 20.09 percent gain over the past month. A 10-billion-euro buyback program has provided technical support. But the charts flash warnings. The 14-day RSI sits at 71.2 (the secondary reading puts it at 70.4), a classic overbought signal. The stock also remains just below its 200-day moving average, suggesting the recovery hasn't yet morphed into a confirmed trend reversal. Annualized volatility of 48.46 percent underscores how unresolved the debate remains.
Where That Leaves Investors
The analyst divergence isn't a matter of one side misreading the data — both camps are working from the same facts, weighting them differently. Jefferies reaffirmed its Buy on July 28 with a 210-euro target, a clear bet on the cloud and AI growth narrative. DZ Bank's Kremser cut his target from 130 to 120 euros on July 27, citing precisely the inorganic margin pressure that prompted the guidance trim.
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The year-to-date picture remains deeply red — down 18.85 percent since January — which tempers any suggestion that the rally marks a clean breakout. Whether Klein's more cautious approach gains further traction depends less on chart patterns than on whether skepticism toward the billion-dollar US infrastructure bets continues to build. SAP's strategy isn't flashier than the hyperscalers'; it simply carries less risk. Klein's warning has been heard. Whether it's been priced in is another matter entirely — a question that won't be answered until the next earnings report on October 21.
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