SAP's Regulatory Reprieve Masks a Deeper Investor Debate Over AI Spending
Published on 08/02/2026 at 17:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The German cartel office's decision to drop its preliminary inquiry into SAP landed at a moment when the software giant's shares were already in the middle of a volatile stretch. The probe, triggered by a complaint from rival Celonis over alleged abuse of market power in data access, ended without a formal proceedings — a legal win that removes one overhang from the stock, even if it was never the main driver of the company's fortunes.
A Roller-Coaster Week on the Frankfurt Exchange
Thursday's Xetra session saw the stock slide 4.13 percent to 155.34 euros, a pullback that followed a sharp rally fueled by second-quarter results. The dip proved short-lived: by Friday's close, shares had recovered to 159.40 euros, up 1.65 percent on the day. Over the past 30 trading sessions, the stock has gained 13.45 percent — a meaningful recovery, though the path back to the all-time high of 258.60 euros set in late July 2025 remains steep, with shares still trading roughly 38 percent below that peak.
The technical picture is mixed. While the short-term rebound looks intact, the stock continues to sit about 8.74 percent below its 200-day moving average, a signal that the longer-term trend has yet to fully turn.
Cloud Momentum Meets a Guidance Trim
The catalyst for the recent surge was the July 23 release of second-quarter and first-half figures. Currency-adjusted cloud revenue jumped 24 percent to 6.28 billion euros, while the current cloud backlog — contracted revenue already secured for future quarters — expanded 26 percent to 22.9 billion euros. IFRS earnings per share climbed to 1.89 euros from 1.46 euros a year earlier.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Yet the numbers came with a caveat. SAP trimmed its 2026 operating profit guidance to a range of 11.8 to 12.2 billion euros on a non-IFRS basis, down from an earlier target of up to 12.3 billion euros. Management attributed the adjustment to dilution effects from recent acquisitions — chiefly Dremio, the US data-management platform whose purchase closed on July 6, and AI startup Prior Labs, with both deals finalized by July 17. The acquisitions are meant to bolster SAP's data and AI strategy, but they now weigh on near-term margins, reigniting questions about how much the transformation will ultimately cost.
Insider Confidence and a Capital Returns Program
Signals from inside the company suggest management remains confident in the growth story. Between July 17 and 24, executives reported twelve insider purchases totaling roughly 3.22 million euros, including buys from CFO Dominik Asam. Meanwhile, major shareholder Harald Tschira increased his voting stake from 0.57 percent to 4.22 percent through voting agreements with Udo Tschira, according to a July 31 disclosure.
The company is also pressing ahead with its capital return program. The second tranche of the buyback launched in 2026 provides for the repurchase of up to 2.6 billion euros in own shares through January 2027 — a signal that management sees value in the current valuation even as some analysts trim their price targets.
A Wide Spread of Analyst Views
Wall Street's reaction to the quarterly figures has been anything but uniform. Jefferies reaffirmed its "Buy" rating with a 210 euro target, citing strategic strength from AI acquisitions. Deutsche Bank and Berenberg also held firm with buy recommendations and targets between 200 and 210 euros — though Berenberg trimmed its target from 215 to 205 euros on July 27, pointing to rising cost pressure from AI investments. Goldman Sachs kept SAP on its "Conviction Buy List" with a 215 euro target, while UBS maintained "Buy" but cut its target more sharply to 164 euros, focusing instead on the accelerating cloud backlog.
JPMorgan's Toby Ogg struck a more cautious tone, rating the stock "Neutral" with a 175 euro target. He praised the strong cloud backlog but warned of potential additional spending if the anticipated AI revenue fails to materialize. Barclays, for its part, lowered its target to 220 euros in late July.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The wide dispersion in price targets underscores the central tension: the cloud growth story continues to convince, but opinions diverge sharply on how much margin pressure the AI transition will inflict.
The next major checkpoint comes October 21, when SAP reports third-quarter numbers. By then, investors will have a clearer read on whether the cartel office's all-clear and the ongoing buybacks provide additional tailwinds — or whether the lowered guidance carries more weight in the months ahead.
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