SAP's Shares Stage a Sharp Rebound, But the Chart's Next Hurdle Is Clear
Published on 08/01/2026 at 14:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The past week has delivered a dramatic reversal for SAP's stock. After plumbing depths not seen in a year, the shares have clawed back with remarkable speed, closing Friday at €159.40 — a 1.65% gain on the day and a 13.45% advance over the week. For a company whose stock spent months moving in one direction only, it's a notable shift in momentum.
A Regulatory Cloud Lifts
The catalyst for the turnaround came from an unexpected corner: the Bundeskartellamt. Germany's competition authority announced on July 31 that it had closed its proceedings against SAP concerning rival Celonis, removing a significant regulatory overhang in the process-mining business. The market's response was immediate, though the gains have been building for several days.
Just over a week ago, on July 23, the stock touched its 52-week low of €127.52. Since then, it has recovered roughly 25%. That low came on the same day SAP released its second-quarter results — a set of numbers that, on closer inspection, offered reasons for optimism despite the market's initial reaction.
The Numbers Behind the Bounce
Revenue rose 9.42% year-over-year to €9.88 billion, up from €9.03 billion in the same period last year. Earnings per share climbed to €1.89 from €1.46. The cloud business, in particular, showed real momentum: the current cloud backlog expanded 27% to €22.9 billion, or 26% on a currency-adjusted basis.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
That metric appears to be what's keeping analysts constructive, even as some trim their price targets. UBS cut its target in July from €205 to €164, citing what it sees as a sluggish rollout of AI agents among SAP's enterprise customers. Yet the Swiss bank maintained its buy rating, pointing to the accelerating growth in short-term cloud contract backlog. Goldman Sachs also issued a buy recommendation following the quarterly numbers, while other houses remain divided on the stock's direction.
Insider Confidence
Adding to the positive signals, CFO Dominik Asam purchased more company shares on July 27 — his second buy of the year. In late January, he had acquired 6,000 shares at an average price of around €169, an investment exceeding €1 million from his personal wealth. Such insider purchases are typically read as a vote of confidence in the company's prospects.
The Technical Picture
The stock has now broken above its 100-day moving average, a meaningful signal given that the shares had been locked in a downtrend since mid-August 2025. The current price sits comfortably above the 50-day average of €144.49, though the 200-day line at €174.67 remains 8.74% away — a gap that's narrowing but still significant.
The relative strength index stands at 64.1, elevated but not yet in overbought territory, suggesting room for further upside on a purely technical basis. However, the 30-day volatility of roughly 49% — unusually high for a DAX constituent — hints that the rally could be driven in part by short covering rather than a broad fundamental reassessment.
What Could Keep the Rally Going
Political tailwinds are also emerging. Digital Minister Karsten Wildberger renewed his call on August 1 for decisive action on a European high-performance AI model to reduce technological dependencies. As Europe's largest software company, SAP could play a pivotal role in any such "Euro-AI" ecosystem. The Economics Ministry's July report also sketched out a stabilizing German economy, which would support mid-market IT investment.
The Risks That Remain
The recovery, however, needs context. SAP still trades 38.36% below its 52-week high of €258.60, reached almost exactly a year ago. On a twelve-month view, the stock is still down 36.66%.
Competitive pressures haven't disappeared. While Europe debates building its own frontier model, international players like Anthropic with "Mythos" and China's Moonshot AI with "Kimi K3" have already deployed sophisticated AI solutions capable of integrating deeply into software architectures.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The market capitalization of €180.56 billion means there's considerable ground to defend. Should the stock fall back below the 50-day average of €144.49, a retest of the recent yearly low at €127.52 becomes a live possibility. Adverse inflation data or fresh geopolitical tensions could also quickly derail the recovery.
The Road Ahead
The immediate test is whether SAP can reclaim the €160 level on a closing basis. Hold above €144.49, and the path toward the 200-day line at €174.67 remains open. Slip below it, and the yearly low comes back into view.
The next quarterly results are expected in mid-October, which will show whether the cloud growth can be sustained. Until then, the market will be watching how management positions the company's AI strategy — and whether the newly won regulatory freedom translates into accelerated cloud adoption. For a stock that's been through a brutal year, the week's gains feel like a turning point. Whether it's a lasting one is still an open question.
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