Siemens Energy's Turbine Tale: Musk's Texas Foundry Reads as Demand Signal, Not Disruption
Published on 09/02/2026 at 20:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The market's instinct was to sell first and ask questions later. When word spread that SpaceX was pouring a turbine-blade foundry in Bastrop, Texas, Siemens Energy shares took a hit — the reflex assumption being that Elon Musk was about to become a competitor in the gas-turbine business. But a wave of analyst pushback has since reframed the narrative: Musk's vertical-integration play is less a threat to the German energy giant than a confirmation of how desperately the world needs power generation.
The logic is straightforward. SpaceX wants its own turbines to feed its AI data centers, largely because industry lead times stretch to roughly three years. JPMorgan's Phil Buller, who reaffirmed an Overweight rating and a €245 price target after conversations with the company, argues the components are destined for captive use, not the open market. Deutsche Bank echoed that view, keeping a Buy with a €210 target and noting Musk's priority is powering his own compute infrastructure rather than taking on established turbine makers.
Jefferies, meanwhile, stayed on the buy side but trimmed its target from €215 to €210. Analyst Lucas Ferhani still sees value, though he flags that the gas-turbine cycle may be peaking and that extended delivery times are acting as a brake. Crucially, he does not see demand softening — the supply chain, not customer appetite, is the binding constraint.
A Share Price Caught Between Headlines and Fundamentals
The stock has begun to claw back ground. On Wednesday, shares traded at €142.16, up 1.4 percent from Tuesday's close of €140.20 — though the rebound follows a bruising stretch that still leaves the equity down roughly 6.4 percent over seven trading sessions. That residual weakness suggests the SpaceX scare has not fully dissipated, even as the analyst community circles the wagons.
The recovery comes against a backdrop of considerable distance from recent highs. The shares sit 27 percent below their 52-week peak of €195.38, reached in April. Yet the longer-term picture remains firmly positive: the stock is up 18 percent year-to-date and has gained 68 percent over the past twelve months.
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Record Orders Tell the Deeper Story
Beneath the headline noise sits a set of fundamentals that explains why analysts remain constructive. Siemens Energy posted a record order intake of €17.9 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Earnings per share came in at €1.26, roughly 8.6 percent ahead of expectations, while the order backlog swelled to €162 billion. Comparable revenue rose 18.5 percent to €11.4 billion, and earnings before special items nearly tripled to €1.62 billion.
Management used the results to reaffirm its full-year guidance: comparable revenue growth of 14 to 16 percent and a margin before special items of 10 to 12 percent. Adding to the momentum, the wind-turbine subsidiary Siemens Gamesa posted its first positive quarterly result since fiscal 2022, keeping it on track to reach breakeven in 2026.
A Structural Overhaul Takes Shape
The operational strength coincides with a sweeping corporate restructuring. Siemens Energy has initiated the carve-out of its "Transformation of Industry" division — a business with roughly 17,000 employees and €5.7 billion in revenue last year. Bloomberg reports that CVC Capital Partners, EQT, Bain Capital, Brookfield and KKR have all signaled interest in acquiring a majority stake, with a valuation north of €10 billion seen as achievable.
In parallel, the company is pushing ahead with its rebranding effort. Under the new "Omterra" identity, Siemens Energy and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy are slated to be gradually merged later this year. The company will pay around €300 million annually through 2030 for the right to use the "Siemens" name, despite having no equity link to its former parent since the 2020 spin-off.
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Structural Tailwinds Beyond the Headlines
The demand story extends well beyond any single corporate maneuver. A study from Allianz Trade highlights how AI data centers are sharply lifting electricity demand across Europe, with renewables acting as a buffer against import dependence. In the first half of 2026, renewable sources already covered 58 percent of German power consumption — a trend that bodes well for suppliers of both gas turbines and grid technology.
Even Siemens Energy's competitor Vestas is catching a tailwind; Jefferies raised its price target there from 215 to 255 Danish kroner, citing strong positioning for the second half of the year.
For investors, the picture is deliberately two-sided. In the near term, the stock remains sensitive to headlines emanating from big tech's infrastructure ambitions. Over the medium term, however, record orders, a confirmed outlook and a portfolio reshaping that could unlock significant value all argue for patience. The central question — whether manufacturing capacity can keep pace with demand — is one the analysts are answering with cautious optimism.
