Silver's Hormuz Shock Fails to Mask a Market Still Digging Out of a Deep Hole
Published on 08/04/2026 at 16:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A single projectile fired at a cargo vessel off Oman's coast was all it took to jolt silver out of its recent lethargy. The metal climbed $1.42 on the COMEX to settle at $59.28 per troy ounce on Tuesday, its second consecutive daily gain, as traders scrambled to price in the risk of a broader conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.
The attack, reported by the UKMTO roughly 37 kilometers northeast of Al Khasab, came just a day after US President Donald Trump described his latest offer to Tehran as a "last chance" for negotiations. Iran has rejected the overture, and with both sides locked in a confrontation since February 28 that has nearly paralyzed shipping through the strategic waterway, the geopolitical premium is firmly back on the table. Trump has threatened to sustain a naval blockade of Iranian ports absent a deal.
A Haven With an Industrial Tailwind
Silver's appeal in this environment is twofold: it functions as a traditional safe haven in times of military escalation, while simultaneously drawing support from its role in photovoltaic systems and electric vehicle production. That industrial demand component is what sets it apart from gold in the current cycle — and it's a factor that analysts say will persist regardless of how the Iran situation resolves.
The metal's recovery from Monday's low of $56.57 has been notable, though the US dollar index's stability is capping the advance. Gold and silver are effectively competing with the greenback itself for safe-haven flows, a dynamic that complicates the bullish case for precious metals.
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The Fed Looms Large
Traders are also positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting. According to CME FedWatch, futures pricing implies a 65 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Fed official Williams has said monetary policy is well-positioned to achieve the 2 percent inflation target, and Friday's US jobs report could provide the next significant catalyst.
A tighter policy stance would ordinarily weigh on zero-yield assets like silver. For now, however, the demand for protection against Gulf turmoil is overwhelming that headwind. The technical picture remains muddled: short-term signals suggest the rebound has room to run, but the 200-day moving average sits well above current levels, capping the medium-term outlook.
A Market Running on Empty
Beneath the daily noise, the structural story is arguably more compelling. The World Silver Survey projects a sixth consecutive annual deficit for 2026, with the market short 46.3 million ounces — a 15 percent widening from the 40.3 million ounce shortfall recorded in 2025. Notably, both supply and demand contracted by roughly 2 percent simultaneously, underscoring how tight the market has become.
Since 2021, global above-ground inventories have drawn down by a cumulative 762 million ounces. This isn't a temporary squeeze; it's a persistent erosion of buffer stocks that many market participants view as a long-term price driver, independent of any near-term resolution in US-Iran tensions.
Still Miles From the Peak
Despite the recent bounce, silver remains roughly half below its record high of $121.62 per ounce, set on January 29. The gold-silver ratio currently sits near 70, a level that historically signals silver is undervalued relative to its yellow-metal counterpart.
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The chart damage from earlier this year is also far from repaired. Silver trades nearly six percent under its 50-day moving average of $62.12, and the year-to-date decline stands at over 17 percent. Analysts at Economies.com identify $57.00 as a key support level that recently triggered fresh buying momentum, while the RSI at 46.2 points to a market that is neither overbought nor oversold.
A Central Bank Signal From Seoul
Adding to the physical demand narrative, the Bank of Korea has announced it will resume purchasing gold after a 13-year hiatus. The central bank plans to acquire domestically produced gold originally destined for export, working with refiner LS MnM, the Korea Exchange, and the Korea Securities Depository. With reserves of just 104.4 tons — low by global standards — the Bank of Korea is looking to build its holdings amid rising geopolitical risk. While the move concerns gold specifically, it reinforces confidence in physical precious metals broadly, a sentiment that spills over into silver.
For the sessions ahead, two variables will determine whether silver can extend its recovery or slide back toward the July lows: the trajectory of US-Iran diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz, and the Fed's response to upcoming economic data. Both carry the potential to reshape the metal's near-term path in either direction.
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