Silver's Split Screen: A $90 Bank Forecast Meets a Market Rattled by Hormuz
Published on 08/18/2026 at 13:06 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The silver market is living two lives at once. On one side sits a bank forecast that sees the metal climbing to $90 an ounce; on the other, a spot price that just slipped to $65.11, down 1 percent on the day. That tension — between bullish structural calls and the immediate gravity of geopolitics and interest rates — is now the defining feature of the trade.
Tuesday's pullback followed a sharp reversal in sentiment. Just 24 hours earlier, silver had been riding high at $66.28, gaining 0.8 percent as soft US economic data fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve might ease off its tightening pedal. The whiplash came fast: by Tuesday, firmer US yields, rising oil prices, and the looming release of the Fed's meeting minutes had flipped the mood entirely.
The oil angle is hard to ignore. The US-Iran ceasefire memorandum expired on Monday, the Strait of Hormuz is described as effectively blocked, and ship movements have ground to a near halt. Iran has reportedly threatened a "fully offensive" posture. That has pushed crude prices higher, feeding inflation concerns and, in turn, speculation that the Fed will hold its restrictive line — a scenario that traditionally weighs on metals that pay no interest.
Gold felt the same pressure, easing 0.5 percent to $4,391.14 per ounce. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury climbed to 4.72 percent, while the 30-year bond hit 5.311 percent, its highest level since June 2007.
Citi's Call Stands Apart From the Noise
Amid the day's red ink, Citi's projection stood out. The bank reaffirmed its view that silver is headed to $90 an ounce on a medium-term horizon — a bold statement of conviction even as the current price action points the other way. J.P. Morgan, meanwhile, struck an optimistic chord on gold, seeing potential up to $6,000, a sign that major institutions continue to find structural arguments for holding precious metals despite near-term volatility.
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The market's immediate focus, though, is the Fed. The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are due Wednesday, and traders are currently pricing in roughly a 65 percent probability of a rate pause in September. A hawkish surprise in the minutes could push silver lower still; a dovish tone would likely give the metal fresh lift.
The Rally That Got Here
None of this happens in a vacuum. Silver's recent strength has been remarkable — a 73.36 percent gain over the past year, a 16.88 percent advance over the last month, and a weekly gain of more than 2 percent. The metal dipped below $64 on Thursday as investors took profits amid Fed uncertainty and Middle East tensions, then recovered to around $65 by Friday. On August 17, it climbed 1.93 percent.
The drivers are twofold. On the monetary side, weak US consumer sentiment and retail sales figures have shifted rate expectations: the market now sees only about a one-in-three chance of a September hike, down from nearly 50 percent previously. On the physical side, demand remains robust. China's imports of silver-bearing ores jumped 62.5 percent year-over-year in June to 219,000 tons, propelled by solar module production and grid investment.
Yet the demand picture is not without cracks. J.P. Morgan Global Research warns that major importers India and China could trim their buying in the future, and solar manufacturers are increasingly adopting technologies that use less silver per panel.
Two Events, One Direction
Investors now have two dates circled. The FOMC minutes land Wednesday, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Both carry the potential to reset the rate calculus.
Geopolitics remains the wildcard. Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon over the weekend, and President Donald Trump is preparing new sanctions against Iran. So far, oil markets have stayed relatively calm — Middle Eastern producers are reportedly still moving millions of barrels through Hormuz under the radar — which has kept inflation fears in check.
For silver bulls, the near term is a test of nerve. The volatility is real, and the headlines are noisy. But with Citi's $90 target on the table and a Fed that may yet blink, the medium-term narrative remains firmly intact.
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