Silver Speculators Add 1,788 Contracts as Physical Deficit Enters a Sixth Straight Year
Published on 09/18/2026 at 06:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Managed-money funds extended their bullish bets on silver in the week through September 8, lifting their net-long position to 14,386 contracts — an increase of 1,788 lots from the prior week. The build-up unfolded against a backdrop of conflicting signals, with geopolitical flashpoints offering support while dollar strength, rate anxiety and doubts about industrial consumption pulled in the opposite direction. That tug-of-war explains why institutions added exposure gradually rather than in a rush.
A Physical Market Running Its Own Race
Far from the noise of the futures tape, the supply-demand picture remains tight. The Silver Institute expects the physical market to post a sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, projected at 46.3 million ounces. China's export restrictions, in place since the start of the year, have further narrowed the pool of silver available for global trade.
The shortfall is the product of demand estimated at 1,112.6 million ounces against supply of 1,066.4 million ounces. Registered COMEX inventories stood at 99.31 million ounces as of September 1 — a buffer that market watchers will be monitoring closely to see whether it can absorb any near-term spikes in buying.
Solar's Retreat, AI's Advance
Beneath the headline deficit, the composition of industrial demand is shifting. Total industrial offtake is forecast at 639.6 million ounces in 2026, down 3 percent year-on-year. The photovoltaic sector, long the single largest industrial consumer of silver, is expected to cut its usage by 19 percent. Partially offsetting that decline are growing requirements from AI data centers, electric vehicles and grid infrastructure.
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Physical investment is moving in the other direction. Coins and bars are seen rising roughly 20 percent to about 227 million ounces next year, a sign that private buyers are increasingly treating the metal as a store of value even as the industrial side loses momentum.
Middle East Flashpoints and a 2007 High in Yields
The macro backdrop has been anything but calm. Reports that Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has gone offline amid regional conflict, combined with heightened U.S.-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and an expanded Houthi presence near Bab el-Mandeb, have stoked fears of prolonged supply disruptions and pushed transport and energy costs higher. Yields on ten-year U.S. Treasuries, meanwhile, climbed to their highest level since 2007, heaping pressure on non-yielding assets.
For silver, the environment cuts both ways. Safe-haven demand typically picks up in times of crisis, but as an industrial metal the metal often takes its cue from worries that expensive energy will dent economic activity — and those concerns have recently had the upper hand.
Speculative Positioning Recovers
Even so, futures and fund flows have shown a notable resilience. Net speculative longs have clawed their way back to the 73rd percentile of the past 60 weeks, according to media reports, even as the broader market softened. At the same time, immediately deliverable inventories at the trading hubs continue to shrink, pointing to selective demand from institutional buyers.
The Tape: $63.43 and a 50-Day Line in Sight
The tension between those forces was visible in Wednesday's close. Silver settled at $63.43 an ounce, a daily loss of 1.2 percent. Over the week the decline totals 2.5 percent, and over the month 5.5 percent. The price now sits just below its 50-day moving average of $63.92, while the gap to the 200-day average of $73.13 remains considerably wider.
Whether the recent accumulation of net-long positions holds — or reverses in the face of the latest price weakness — is likely to be the key question traders carry into the coming sessions.
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