SK Hynix Faces HBM4 Order Timing Questions as Analysts Dismiss CXMT Threat Ahead of Quarterly Results
Published on 10/17/2026 at 15:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SK Hynix is heading into its third-quarter earnings report on 27 October with investors weighing two very different narratives: reports that some HBM4 back-end equipment orders could slip from the second half of 2026 into 2027, and a growing body of analyst opinion that the competitive threat from China's CXMT has been overplayed.
The equipment-order reports landed on a semiconductor sector already on edge over the pace of global AI spending and persistent US inflation worries. The stock has come under sustained selling pressure in recent sessions, closing Friday at 1,272,000.00 KRW — a level 57 percent below its 52-week high. Over a seven-day stretch the shares shed 24 percent, though Friday's close carried a modest daily gain of 0.8 percent.
CXMT Fears Meet a Measured Response
The turbulence traces back in part to remarks by CXMT president Cao Kanyu at a conference in Shanghai. The Chinese memory maker said it had made progress on a novel 4F² DRAM cell architecture and aims to introduce a DDR5-RDIMM server module by year-end. SK Hynix shares fell more than ten percent at one point during Tuesday's Seoul session as market watchers flagged the developments as a potential threat to established chipmakers.
Citi's analysts take a far less alarmed view. They see the actual impact of CXMT's plans on global memory supply as limited, noting that mass production on the new architecture is unlikely before 2028. CXMT also remains four generations behind the world's leading DRAM manufacturers, in Citi's assessment — a gap that undercuts fears of an imminent supply glut in high-performance memory.
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Management Pushes Back on Dalian Claims
SK Hynix has also moved to correct the record on a separate front. Management rejected reports suggesting US investment commitments had been tied to export approvals for China. The company made clear that no capacity expansion is planned at its Dalian Mod-B facility, and that equipment installation there proceeds in coordination with and under authorization from the US government. It likewise denied claims of a quid pro quo linking Dalian equipment approvals to the construction of a US NAND flash plant.
Earnings Expectations Stay Bullish
Against that noisy backdrop, the fundamental case for the memory maker remains intact in several analysts' eyes. IBK Investment & Securities reaffirmed its buy rating and 4 million won price target on 7 October, projecting third-quarter 2026 revenue of 95.8 trillion won and operating profit of 75.1 trillion won.
Han Dong-hee of SK Securities struck a similar note, pointing to upward revisions in next year's earnings estimates on the back of a tightening memory supply picture and rising prices for High Bandwidth Memory. J.P. Morgan analysts, for their part, noted on Thursday that the share buyback programs that had supported both Samsung and SK Hynix have now run their course.
New Products on Display
Beyond the quarterly numbers, SK Hynix used the OCP Global Summit to showcase its product pipeline, unveiling the MARS architecture alongside a second-generation 256-gigabyte CXL-3.2 memory module for data centers. The module offers more than double the bandwidth and roughly 30 percent better energy efficiency than its predecessor, according to the company — a reminder of the technological lead it holds over newer entrants.
Investors will get the full picture on 27 October, when SK Hynix publishes its complete quarterly figures. A conference call with analysts and investors is scheduled for 28 October at 9:00 a.m. Seoul time.
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