SK Hynix Jumps 11% as HBM4 Ramp Meets a Sold-Out Order Book
Published on 10/28/2026 at 20:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SK Hynix shares climbed 11% on the back of quarterly figures that broke records for the sixth consecutive quarter and a fresh shareholder return plan. Yet the real test for investors sits further out than the latest earnings beat: whether the memory maker can convert a production base that is effectively sold out through 2029 into durable profits while funding the capacity build-out that outlook demands.
The operating numbers are striking. In the third quarter of 2026, SK Hynix posted revenue of KRW 104.6155 trillion and an operating profit of KRW 83.3338 trillion, according to Xinhua — both quarterly records for the sixth time in a row. What those figures describe is the past. The more instructive signal lies in what management said about the years ahead.
A Product Handover With a Deadline
Large-scale HBM4 shipments have already begun, and the company expects HBM4 to become its dominant HBM product as early as the fourth quarter of 2026. That is a rapid internal shift, and it gives investors a concrete yardstick for the next phase of the business rather than a distant promise.
The distinction matters. The start of broader shipments is a reported fact; HBM4's future dominance within the company's own HBM lineup is a forecast. Treating the two as one and the same would mean booking an announced development step as a completed success. What strengthens the case is the pairing of that product transition with demand that is already largely locked in.
Contracts Stretch to 2029
Long-term supply agreements with 14 major customers, including global cloud providers, cover more than half of total production capacity for the contract years in question — 2027 and 2028. Beyond that, SK Hynix has said its DRAM and HBM output is practically sold out through 2029. Management also expects the tight supply situation in memory to persist until 2030.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
That is more than an optimistic demand forecast: customers are committing for the long haul, which gives the company firmer ground for expansion. The AI-driven demand base is broadening too, according to the company, with corporate buyers and state initiatives joining the large technology groups. Still, contracted volume is not contracted margin. Capacity locked in answers the question of how many chips can be sold, not what they will earn.
On pricing, RBC reports that annual negotiations for 2027 are complete, with HBM prices up 80–100%. The research house expects the DRAM upcycle to continue and considers a sustained market-share lead in HBM likely. That pricing power is precisely what makes additional output attractive — and precisely what tempts rivals to build as well.
The Bill Behind the Boom
SK Hynix plans significantly higher capital spending for 2027, and the financing of a planned US NAND plant remains unresolved. According to Bloomberg, Solidigm is in talks with the US Commerce Department over a US factory worth USD 45 billion. A precondition for the investment decision is approval for additional equipment shipments to Dalian in China; the scope and timetable of the US project have not yet been fixed. Solidigm is considering directing funds from the Dalian modernization toward the US plan, which means the build-out hinges on more than memory demand alone.
Capital allocation is further complicated by the payout announced alongside the results. SK Hynix plans roughly KRW 100 trillion in shareholder returns for the current financial year, comprising more than KRW 30 trillion in cash dividends and over KRW 60 trillion in buybacks or share cancellations. Distributions and expansion are thus competing for the same capital — not automatically a problem, but a reason to watch whether investment planning holds up under less favorable market conditions.
A Valuation Debate Beneath the Cheer
Not every analyst read the news as a blank cheque. Cantor Fitzgerald reportedly cut its price target to USD 250 from USD 300 on Monday while keeping its "Overweight" rating. A lower target paired with a positive rating fits a sober interpretation: the business outlook can convince while the right valuation remains contested.
Long-term contracts improve visibility, but new fabs will change tomorrow's supply, and both things can be true at once. The 11% move is more than a sentiment swing — it reflects genuine approval of the quarter and its prospects. Whether that optimism holds will depend less on the next earnings record than on how contracted demand, investment discipline and solid project financing fit together.
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