SpaceX Enters a High-Stakes Fortnight as Lock-Up Flood, First Earnings and Merger Rumors Converge
Published on 07/31/2026 at 20:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The calendar has rarely looked more punishing for a newly listed company. SpaceX shares slipped another 2.98% on Friday to EUR 94.63, leaving the stock barely 0.73% above the 52-week low of EUR 93.94 touched the same day. That extends a slide of more than 31% over the past month — a descent that has stripped away much of the post-IPO euphoria and left investors counting down to a pair of events that could reshape the stock's trajectory.
A Lock-Up Wave and a Debut Earnings Report
The immediate source of anxiety is a one-two punch landing within 48 hours. On 4 August, SpaceX will publish its first quarterly report since the June listing. Two days later, on 6 August, restrictions lapse on a tranche of insider holdings, releasing up to 20% of the company's shares — roughly 911.5 million to 930 million units, depending on the estimate, with a market value around USD 100 billion — onto the open market. That is merely the first of several unlock tranches; by January 2027, nearly 4 billion shares are expected to become freely tradable.
Morgan Stanley has called the convergence of first earnings and lock-up expiry the "most dangerous moment" for the stock, though the firm retains an "Overweight" rating. Analyst Adam Jonas frames the coming days as a moment of truth for short sellers, pointing to potential catalysts such as more than two gigawatts of additional compute capacity and expanding cloud partnerships, while flagging capital expenditures above USD 50 billion and the prospect of further fundraising. The bank's price target stands at USD 300. Deutsche Bank has also reaffirmed a buy rating with a USD 255 target, and Cantor Fitzgerald sees fair value at USD 246. The broader analyst consensus currently sits at 23 buys, six holds and a single sell, with an average target of USD 239.04.
Not everyone is convinced the downside is contained. Voices on Seeking Alpha warn of the "biggest sell-off" still to come, citing short interest near 35% and skepticism about the AI narrative. Technical indicators offer little comfort: the relative strength index reads 31.3 to 33, signaling oversold conditions, yet with annualized 30-day volatility running between 54.3% and 65.19%, the tape remains prone to violent swings.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Starlink Carries the Weight While Starship Burns Cash
The underlying business presents a mixed picture. Starlink remains the revenue engine, generating USD 3.2 billion in Q1 2026 on 10.3 million subscribers — up 105% year over year — though average revenue per user has slipped to USD 66 a month from USD 86, reflecting cheaper terminals and deeper penetration into emerging markets. Group-level results are less flattering: the company posted a net loss of USD 4.3 billion in the first quarter, following a USD 4.9 billion loss for all of 2025, on annual revenue of USD 18.7 billion.
The Starship program continues to drain resources. The 13th test flight was technically successful — deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites, reigniting an engine in flight and executing a controlled ocean splashdown — yet the stock still dropped more than 4% in response, as investors focused on the cost side of the ledger. Starship is designed to cut launch costs per orbit by 99% over the long run, but development has already consumed more than USD 15 billion. Analysts expect capital expenditures to climb from USD 48.7 billion this year to USD 118.4 billion by fiscal 2028, while debt could balloon from USD 41.7 billion to over USD 218 billion in the same period.
A Fresh Pentagon Contract Offers Some Ballast
Amid the turbulence, SpaceX secured a USD 1.6 billion contract from the US Space Force for 18 Falcon 9 missions, to be completed by the end of 2027 — roughly USD 89 million per launch. The award bolsters the launch segment, which generated USD 4.1 billion in revenue and USD 653 million in EBITDA in 2025, and underscores the company's role as a cornerstone of US government space operations. Government business accounted for 20.9% of revenue last year. Separately, the FAA has proposed easing environmental restrictions on commercial launches, a move drawing criticism from environmental groups but one that could accelerate approval timelines for future Starship flights.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Tesla Merger Talk Adds a Geopolitical Twist
Complicating the picture is a Wall Street Journal report suggesting Tesla executives have explored options to spin off, sell or shutter the China business — which produces more than half of Tesla's deliveries — as groundwork for a potential merger with SpaceX. The logic: SpaceX's status as a US defense contractor makes Chinese exposure within the same corporate structure a regulatory minefield. Elon Musk dismissed the report as "absurd fake news," though he had previously acknowledged growing overlap between the two companies during Tesla's late-July earnings call. JPMorgan analysts see Chinese approval processes as a practical obstacle to any combination, while SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell is said to have remarked that a merger could simplify Musk's life.
For now, the merger speculation adds another layer of uncertainty to a stock already navigating its first earnings season, a historic lock-up expiration and a defense-heavy identity that invites scrutiny from multiple directions. Investors will likely need to hold on tight through 4 August and beyond.
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