SpaceX Faces a Fork in the Road: First Earnings, a Lock-Up Flood, and a Regulatory Squall
Published on 08/01/2026 at 19:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell a brutal story. SpaceX shares closed Friday at €93.96, down 3.48% on the day, leaving the freshly listed rocket and satellite giant hovering just 0.59% above the 52-week low of €93.41 touched on July 31. Since peaking at €194.46 in mid-June, the stock has shed more than half its value. Over the past 30 days alone, the decline has exceeded 32%.
That punishing slide sets the stage for what could be the most consequential week in the company's short public life. On Tuesday, August 4, after the US market close, SpaceX will report second-quarter earnings for the first time as a listed company, followed by a management audio conference at 4:30 pm Eastern. But the numbers are only half the story — the report coincides with the expiration of the largest lock-up period release in financial history.
A fractured Wall Street
Seldom has the analyst community been so openly divided on a single name. Phillip Securities has initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $75 price target, arguing that only 22% of fiscal 2025 revenue came from the launch business — the segment that remains the company's dominant cash cow. The bearish thesis centers on capital burn: Phillip Securities projects red ink and negative free cash flow through at least 2030, cumulatively reaching $90 billion. The firm's analysts note that while AI is the growth story, it rests on compute contracts that expire at the end of 2029.
Others see opportunity in the wreckage. Cantor Fitzgerald has held firm with its Buy rating despite the rout, while Craig-Hallum goes further, framing the broader retreat from NewSpace names as a buying opportunity for investors with the stomach for short-term volatility.
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The broader consensus, however, remains cautiously constructive. According to TipRanks data compiled from 30 analysts, the stock carries a "Moderate Buy" rating — 23 buys, six holds, and a single sell. The average price target of $239.04 implies upside of roughly 110% from current levels.
The lock-up elephant
The earnings release cannot be separated from the expiry of the lock-up period. After the Q2 report, certain early investors will be free to sell their stakes for the first time — potentially adding another 20% of outstanding shares to the float, which could more than quadruple the freely tradable supply.
Morningstar's Nicolas Owens expects a significant portion of those shares to actually hit the market. Early investors hold low cost bases and have waited through long holding periods, he reasons. Owens also considers it plausible that the recent price slide already anticipates this looming dilution.
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, meanwhile, sees the upcoming report as a chance for greater clarity on long-term growth strategy. His biggest catalyst: the planned expansion of AI compute capacity by more than 2 gigawatts over the coming year.
A rare operational bright spot
Just days before the numbers land, SpaceX delivered at least one positive operational signal. On July 24, the Starship rocket lifted off from Starbase in Texas for its 13th test flight — the first launch since June's record IPO. The Super Heavy booster separated roughly two minutes after liftoff and executed a controlled splashdown in the Gulf.
About 18 minutes into the flight, SpaceX deployed 20 new Starlink V3 satellites into orbit — the first in-flight test of this satellite generation. Engineer Kate Tice reported success: "We were able to not only make contact with all 20, but also communicate with them via laser. That's great."
Not everything went perfectly. During the landing maneuver, not all required Raptor engines ignited, causing the booster to touch down at higher velocity than planned. Spokesman Dan Huot still framed the outcome positively: it marked the first time an intact Starship landed in water, yielding valuable heat-shield data.
The regulatory cloud
Adding to the pressure is growing political scrutiny of SpaceX's AI division. Frank Pallone, the ranking Democrat on the House Energy Committee, is demanding access to documents and a tour of the data centers and power plants around Memphis, Tennessee. His allegation: the company has created "a massive health risk" for the region through gas turbines operating without emissions controls or permits. Pallone has set an August 11 deadline for the information.
The data-center buildout, inherited through the xAI acquisition, is becoming an increasingly visible political flashpoint — precisely as investors weigh what role the AI unit plays alongside Starlink and launch in the company's growth trajectory.
What Q1 tells us
The first quarter of 2026 offers a benchmark. Revenue grew more than 15% to $4.7 billion, while the net loss widened dramatically from $528 million to $4.3 billion. Operating cash flow rose to $1.05 billion from $727 million a year earlier, and the company ended the quarter with $15.9 billion in cash reserves.
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Within that revenue mix, Starlink's connectivity business remained the primary driver at $3.3 billion. The AI segment contributed $818 million, and the spaceflight segment $619 million.
The setup
The technical picture is equally fraught. The 14-day RSI has fallen to 31 — a level classically considered oversold — while annualized 30-day volatility has climbed to 54.45%. Trading has grown markedly more turbulent since the IPO.
Prominent investors are themselves split. Some long-term holders continue to add positions despite the slide. Bill Ackman has spoken approvingly of SpaceX's core business, calling Starlink a "near monopoly" — though he's still weighing whether the current price reflects that strength.
Retail interest, meanwhile, remains extraordinary. On one crypto-adjacent trading platform, SpaceX accounted for nearly 30% of all trading volume and user activity across more than 7,000 available US stocks and ETFs — making it by far the most-traded name.
Despite the crash, the market capitalization still stands at roughly €1.292 trillion. The coming days will test whether the bulls or the bears have read the situation correctly. Strong operational commentary and credible Starlink margin data could steady the ship even as the float expands. Disappointment, however, would land on a stock already at its lows — with freshly unlocked shares waiting in the wings.
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Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
