SpaceX Faces a High-Stakes Week as Short Sellers Circle Ahead of Earnings and Lock-Up Expiry
Published on 08/03/2026 at 08:50 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The most consequential stretch of SpaceX's short life as a public company begins Tuesday, when the rocket and satellite giant delivers its first quarterly report since its record-breaking June IPO. Just two trading days later, a lock-up restriction expires on more than 900 million shares, potentially unleashing a wave of supply onto a market already braced for bad news.
The stock closed Friday at €93.96, down 3.48% on the day, leaving it just 0.59% above its 52-week low. Over the past month, the shares have shed 33.83% — a slide that has erased most of the gains from the post-IPO pop and pushed the 14-day relative strength index to 31, a level many technicians read as deeply oversold.
A Record IPO, Now Under Water
When SpaceX listed in June, it raised $75 billion by selling 555,555,555 shares at $135 apiece — the largest initial public offering in history. The euphoria did not last. On the Nasdaq, the stock (ticker: SPCX) closed last Friday at $108.37, roughly 20% below the offer price and more than 50% beneath its early-summer record high.
The market's mood has soured as investors weigh the company's aggressive spending against a still-distant path to profitability. For the second quarter, analysts on average expect revenue of around $6.9 billion, a sharp jump from the $4.6 billion SpaceX reported in Q1. But the consensus also calls for a net loss per share, with estimates ranging from 16 to 26 cents. In the first quarter, the company posted a net loss of $4.2 billion, compared with just $528 million a year earlier. The ramp-up of Starship development and heavy investment in artificial intelligence are driving costs higher; most observers don't expect sustained profitability until 2027.
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One bright spot remains Starlink, the satellite internet business that is now the company's primary growth engine. Subscriptions reached 10.3 million, though average revenue per user has slipped from $86 to $66. A fresh $1.6 billion contract from the U.S. Space Force for 18 Falcon 9 launches adds some visibility on the defense side.
The Lock-Up Looms
The bigger overhang is the expiration of the lock-up period on Thursday, when 911.5 million shares held by early investors and insiders become eligible for sale. At current prices, that package is worth roughly $99 billion — larger, by most accounts, than SpaceX's entire free float to date. The tradable supply is expected to more than double, from about 5% of shares outstanding to nearly 12%.
A second, price-contingent tranche of 455.8 million shares remains locked until the stock reaches $175.50 — a level far above where it trades today.
Short sellers have been piling in ahead of the event. Short interest stood at 219.3 million shares as of late July, up from just 23.3 million in mid-June — a nearly tenfold increase in six weeks. That represents roughly one-third of the current float and a market value of about $24.6 billion, surpassing the bearish bets against Tesla. The combination of a weak price chart, an untested earnings record, and the prospect of a supply glut explains the nervousness gripping the stock.
Analysts Split on the Path Forward
Wall Street's views on SpaceX couldn't be more divided. Bernstein initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $239 price target, tying its thesis to four factors: rapid reusability of the Starship rocket, with a goal of 3,600 launches by 2031; semiconductor capacity of roughly 50,000 wafer starts per month across five planned factories requiring more than $160 billion in investment; regulatory progress toward orbital Starship flights, which still lack approval; and the ability to deliver the computing power for planned orbital data centers, targeting one terawatt of compute annually.
Morgan Stanley, which led the IPO and collected around $100 million in fees, is even more bullish with a $300 price target. On the other side stands analyst Julia Ostian, who recommends selling, citing the heavy short interest, the upcoming unlock, and doubts about the viability of the AI business.
That AI segment remains the biggest wild card. It posted an operating loss of $6.4 billion in 2025, and the spending shows no signs of slowing. On Monday, reports emerged that SpaceX plans to build a 1.2-gigawatt natural gas power plant for the data centers of its xAI division, ordering gas turbines worth $2.8 billion over three years. Capital expenditures for 2026 are already projected at $48.7 billion. As Nikkei Asia noted, the recent sell-off suggests the broader wave of AI-related financing is beginning to strain under rising borrowing costs.
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A Coin Flip for the Week
The technical setup suggests the stock may be due for a bounce. With 30-day annualized volatility at 54.45%, even a modest positive surprise in Tuesday's earnings could force short sellers to cover, driving a rapid rally. But if the numbers disappoint, Thursday's lock-up expiry could add further selling pressure to an already battered stock.
For founder Elon Musk, the stakes are personal. His net worth had fallen to $684 billion by early August, down from $1.33 trillion in mid-June, a decline largely tied to the drop in value of his SpaceX stake, which is reportedly worth more than $550 billion.
The next few trading sessions will determine which scenario plays out. One thing is certain: with the float about to expand dramatically and bearish bets at record levels, the stock's direction this week could set the tone for months to come.
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