SpaceX’s $1.6 Billion Space Force Win Offers Brief Relief Ahead of a Crunch Week
Published on 07/30/2026 at 13:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A fresh Pentagon contract and a successful classified launch gave SpaceX shares a modest lift on Thursday, but the reprieve may prove short-lived as the company barrels toward a pivotal two-day stretch that will test investor nerves.
The stock climbed 1.55% to €99.72, snapping a recent slide that had pushed it within striking distance of a 52-week low. The catalyst came in two parts: a flawless overnight mission for the National Reconnaissance Office and a $1.6 billion award from the U.S. Space Force that underscores SpaceX’s deepening grip on national security launches.
Yet the broader picture remains fraught. The shares are still down nearly 49% from their June peak of €194.46, and the relative strength index at 35 signals the stock is approaching oversold territory — a technical condition that often precedes a bounce but offers no guarantee of one.
A Two-Day Gauntlet
All eyes are now trained on the first week of August, when two high-stakes events will collide. On August 4, SpaceX is set to release its quarterly earnings — the first detailed look at the financial health of its combined Starlink and launch operations since going public. Analysts expect revenue of $6.82 billion and a loss of $0.29 per share for the second quarter, a tall order given that the first quarter produced a net loss of $4.3 billion on $4.7 billion in sales.
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Just two days later, on August 6, a lock-up period expires, freeing roughly 911.5 million shares — about a fifth of the previously restricted insider holdings — for trading. The sudden influx of supply could amplify selling pressure, especially with short sellers already circling. According to S3 Partners, around 35% of the free float is now sold short, representing a $26 billion bet against the stock that makes SpaceX one of the most heavily shorted names on Wall Street.
The timing of the lock-up expiry is particularly awkward. It lands just after the earnings release, meaning any disappointment in the numbers could trigger a wave of selling from both short sellers and newly unlocked insiders looking to cash out.
The Golden Dome Windfall
The Space Force contract, announced July 29, covers 18 Falcon 9 launches from Vandenberg Space Force Base through the end of 2027. The missions fall under the "Space-Based Sensing and Targeting" portfolio, a key component of the $185 billion "Golden Dome" missile defense initiative. The deal brings SpaceX’s total Pentagon contracts this year to at least $7 billion, including $4.16 billion for sensor satellites and $2.29 billion for communications infrastructure.
These steady defense revenues provide a fundamental counterweight to the stock’s recent volatility. The NROL-95 launch — the third national security mission SpaceX has flown under the NSSL Phase 2 contract — further burnished the company’s reputation for reliability on sensitive government work. The Falcon 9’s booster stage B1096 completed its seventh flight and landed safely at Landing Zone 2, while the payload remains classified.
AI Spending Casts a Shadow
Yet even positive operational news has failed to stem the stock’s decline. After the successful 13th test flight of Starship, which deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites and executed a soft water landing, shares fell more than 4% in the following session. Investors appear fixated on the company’s heavy capital spending, particularly in artificial intelligence.
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In the first quarter, roughly three-quarters of SpaceX’s $10 billion investment outlay went into AI data centers, according to company disclosures. That spending is squeezing profitability, even though Starlink generated operating income last year. The market’s valuation reflects the tension: SpaceX trades at a price-to-sales ratio of about 77, compared with an average of roughly 7 for comparable technology stocks. That gap has fueled concern that a significant portion of the current market capitalization rests on bets that future AI revenue from ventures like Grok or Cursor will materialize — bets that have yet to prove themselves.
Divergent Analyst Views
Wall Street remains split on the stock’s direction. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas warned that a sustained drop below $100 would signal that investors are systematically undervaluing SpaceX’s AI activities. Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu struck a more optimistic tone, reiterating a buy rating with a $255 price target and arguing that the company’s shift of resources from the Falcon 9 program toward Starship is strategically sound.
The Space Force contract, while substantial, has not been enough to offset the gravitational pull of short sellers and the looming lock-up expiry. For now, the market is waiting to see whether the company’s operational strength — demonstrated by both the NROL-95 launch and the Pentagon’s continued confidence — can withstand the selling pressure that August’s one-two punch may unleash.
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