SpaceX's $24.6 Billion Short Bet Hangs Over a Make-or-Break Earnings Week
Published on 08/01/2026 at 21:50 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell a brutal story. Since peaking at 194.46 euros on June 16, SpaceX's stock has shed more than half its market value — roughly $1.2 trillion in wealth erased in under seven weeks. Friday's close of 93.96 euros, down 3.48 percent on the day, leaves the shares hovering just 0.59 percent above the 52-week low of 93.41 euros touched on July 31.
What makes the slide particularly uncomfortable for long-term believers is who's on the other side of the trade. Short sellers have piled into SpaceX with unusual conviction, making it one of the most heavily shorted large-cap stocks in the United States. According to data from S3 Partners, short positions now stand at 219.3 million shares — roughly 34 percent of the free float, with a notional value of approximately $24.6 billion. That short book has grown large enough to eclipse the bearish positioning against Tesla, a notable benchmark for a company that only went public in June.
Technical indicators reinforce the sense of a stock under siege. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 31, brushing against the threshold that typically defines an oversold condition. Meanwhile, 30-day annualized volatility has climbed to 54.45 percent, reflecting just how frayed investor nerves have become.
A Calendar Collision
The bearish positioning is no accident. The market is bracing for what analysts have dubbed a "double risk" event beginning August 3, with two catalysts landing within days of each other.
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On August 4, after the US market close, SpaceX will publish its first quarterly report as a publicly traded company. Management will follow with an audio conference at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Just two days later, on August 6, the lock-up period expires, potentially freeing roughly 911.5 million shares held by insiders and early investors — a release that could more than quadruple the tradable float. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens expects a substantial portion of those shares to actually hit the market, noting that early investors hold low cost bases and have already endured long holding periods. In his view, the recent share-price slide may already be pricing in that looming dilution.
The Earnings Baseline
Investors heading into Tuesday's report have one clear reference point: the first quarter of 2026. Revenue grew more than 15 percent to $4.7 billion, though the net loss widened dramatically from $528 million to $4.3 billion. Operating cash flow improved to $1.05 billion from $727 million a year earlier, and the company ended the quarter with $15.9 billion in cash reserves.
The segment breakdown shows where the growth engine lives. Starlink's connectivity business remains the dominant contributor at $3.3 billion in revenue, followed by the AI division at $818 million and the spaceflight segment at $619 million. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees the upcoming report as a chance for management to clarify its long-term growth strategy, with the planned expansion of AI computing capacity by more than 2 gigawatts next year ranking as his primary catalyst.
A Rare Operational Bright Spot
Amid the market turbulence, SpaceX delivered at least one piece of encouraging news from the launch pad. On July 24, the Starship rocket lifted off from Starbase in Texas for its 13th test flight — the first launch since the record-breaking IPO in June. The Super Heavy booster separated roughly two minutes into the flight and executed a controlled splashdown in the Gulf.
About 18 minutes after liftoff, the mission deployed 20 new Starlink V3 satellites, marking the first in-flight test of that satellite generation. SpaceX engineer Kate Tice reported full success on the communications front: "We were able to not just contact all 20, but also communicate with them via laser. That's great."
The landing wasn't flawless — not all required Raptor engines ignited during the descent, causing the booster to touch down faster than planned. Still, spokesperson Dan Huot framed the outcome positively, noting it marked the first time an intact Starship landed in water, yielding valuable heat-shield data.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Analysts Hold Their Ground
Wall Street has so far resisted the urge to capitulate. Across 30 analysts tracked by TipRanks, the consensus sits at "Moderate Buy" — 23 buy ratings, six holds, and a single sell. The average price target of $239.04 implies upside of roughly 110 percent from current levels. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald and Clear Street have also maintained constructive stances, citing the long-term potential of Starlink and Starship development.
Institutional buyers have shown similar conviction. Ark Invest, under Cathie Wood, reportedly added roughly $14.5 million worth of SpaceX shares during the recent selloff. And on the contract front, the US Space Force awarded SpaceX a $1.6 billion order for 18 Falcon 9 launches — a meaningful boost to the launch backlog that some market watchers see as evidence the operational story remains intact.
The Week Ahead
The setup heading into Tuesday is unusually binary. Strong operational commentary and credible margin data from Starlink could steady the stock even as the float expands. A disappointing report, by contrast, would land on a stock already sitting at its 52-week low, with freshly unlocked shares waiting in the wings. The first hard answer arrives after the bell on August 4 — and the shorts have already made clear which way they're betting.
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