SpaceX's AI Engine Is About to Outearn Its Rockets — and the Market Is Still Weighing the Cost
Published on 08/14/2026 at 10:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The company that built its name putting satellites into orbit is on the verge of a defining shift: Elon Musk told employees at an internal meeting on Wednesday that revenue from SpaceX's artificial intelligence operations will surpass every one of its space-related business lines as soon as September. By the fourth quarter, he added, the gap will widen considerably.
It is a striking admission from a firm still launching Starlink missions at a near-weekly clip. But the numbers behind it suggest the transformation is already well underway.
The Q2 Scorecard
SpaceX's second-quarter results, published on August 4, showed revenue climbing 92% year over year to $7.8 billion — comfortably ahead of the $6.9 billion consensus estimate. The net loss came in at $541 million, or $0.09 per share, better than analysts had braced for, while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion.
The segment breakdown tells the story of a business in transition. The connectivity division posted $4.3 billion in revenue and added 1.7 million new subscribers, bringing Starlink's total to 12 million — double the figure from a year earlier. But the AI segment was the standout, surging 247% to $2.6 billion in revenue.
The company now expects an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by year-end and has pulled forward its internal target of $1 trillion in annual sales from 2031 to 2030.
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Where the Money Is Going
Capital spending in the quarter reached $18.37 billion, with $15.83 billion of that funneled into AI capacity. Musk told staff that computing power is slated to expand from 1.4 gigawatts today to 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027 — an investment he estimates could generate between $300 billion and $500 billion in annual revenue. His longer-term view is even more stark: within five years, he said, AI will account for 99% of the company's value.
The strategy is being reinforced through dealmaking. SpaceX has announced the acquisition of Cursor for $60 billion, a move aimed at accelerating its AI offerings for enterprise customers. Cloud-service contracts totaling $14.1 billion and government orders for the Starshield program exceeding $6 billion add further heft.
A Stock Caught Between Momentum and Supply
The share price has been on a steady climb. At its current level of €123.04, the stock is up 0.4% from Wednesday's close of €122.54, with gains of 6.9% over seven trading days and 4.4% over 30 days. That rally followed an initial dip — shares fell 8% in after-hours trading immediately after the earnings release, then recovered in subsequent sessions.
Still, the stock sits 37% below its 52-week high of €194.46, reached in June, and roughly 35% above its early-August low of €91.04. Annualized volatility of 93% underscores just how sensitive the shares remain to headlines, whether launch news, earnings, or analyst commentary.
Part of the recent upward pressure stems from a structural change in the share register. On August 6, insider lock-up restrictions expired, releasing 911.5 million shares to trading and doubling the free float from 4.9% to 11.8% of outstanding shares. The stock rose 6.1% that day. Another 319 million shares could be unlocked on August 20, according to the prospectus, potentially adding further supply.
Institutional interest is building nonetheless. Norway's Norges Bank Investment Management disclosed a 0.05% stake in SpaceX on Wednesday, valued at roughly $1.2 billion. Argus Research upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy on August 7, setting a price target of $160, citing the rapid payback potential of AI infrastructure investments.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Operational Engine Keeps Running
While the AI narrative dominates headlines, the launch cadence has not let up. Two dozen Starlink satellites went up from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Wednesday, following the 72nd Starlink mission of 2026 from Cape Canaveral on August 11 and another launch from Vandenberg days earlier.
Attention is also turning to the 14th test flight of Starship, which would mark the first orbital attempt of the new v3 version and could include an initial catch attempt of the ship's upper stage. Only two of nineteen checklist items have been completed so far, leaving the timeline uncertain.
For investors, SpaceX remains a story of two speeds: operations delivering weekly launches and subscriber growth, while the valuation hinges on whether the massive AI and infrastructure spending begins to pay off in the near term.
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