SpaceX's Carrier Ambitions Collide With Geopolitics as Evercore Lifts Target to $275
Published on 10/19/2026 at 04:00 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SpaceX sealed another government win on Friday, launching the classified USSF-481 mission for the U.S. Space Force from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The Falcon 9's first stage came back down on schedule, touching down on the droneship "Of Course I Still Love You." Business with the Pentagon, in other words, is running like clockwork. The market's mood is another matter.
The stock closed Friday at €129.96, down 1.9% on the day and roughly 10% over the past seven sessions — a slide that leaves little room for operational missteps against a market capitalization of €1,964.90 billion. The pressure comes even as Evercore ISI raised its price target to $275 from $230 while keeping an Outperform rating, a signal that at least some observers are looking past the recent weakness.
A Spectrum Bill Nearing $8 Billion
What has changed is where SpaceX's growth story now lives. Orbital launches and government contracts still pay the bills, but the company's push into global markets is increasingly a telecommunications play — and one with a steep entry fee. Roughly two weeks ago, SpaceX agreed to acquire Grain Management's nationwide 800-MHz spectrum portfolio, covering up to 14 MHz of paired spectrum, for its Starlink Mobile service. The deal awaits approval from the U.S. Federal Communications Commission. Neither party disclosed terms, but a source cited by Reuters pegged the value at close to $8 billion.
Spectrum alone won't get the job done. Reuters reported that SpaceX still needs a terrestrial radio network, years of development work and additional billions before it can take on the major U.S. carriers. The FCC did grant approval roughly two weeks ago for mobile satellite systems that communicate directly with end-user devices — a regulatory green light, but hardly the last hurdle.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Starshield and the White House
Politics is intruding on the orbital side of the business as well. U.S. officials told Reuters that the order to throttle the military Starshield service for Ukraine came directly from the White House. Ukrainian authorities had earlier reported that restrictions on military terminals hampered drone operations; according to an adviser to the Ukrainian president, the devices stopped working at speeds above 160 km/h. The episode lays bare the dilemma facing a global communications group: satellite constellations cannot be run in isolation from geopolitical interests, and government guardrails increasingly shape how the technology can be used abroad.
Barclays Floats a Tesla Tie-Up
On Thursday, Barclays analysts stirred the pot with speculation that SpaceX and Tesla could move closer together, with an announcement possibly arriving as early as this autumn. Artificial intelligence is the thread the analysts see running through any such combination. Barclays was explicit that this is speculation, not an announced or confirmed deal — but the chatter shows how much strategic weight observers attach to synergies between the two technology companies as they build out computing and network infrastructure.
A Busy Launch Manifest
Operationally, SpaceX has kept up a brisk cadence for civilian and military customers alike. On Tuesday, the CRS-35 mission carried more than 6,300 pounds of supplies and research material to the International Space Station for NASA — a textbook example of contract-backed routine work. The Starship program is advancing in parallel: also on Tuesday, SpaceX returned the Ship 40 vehicle to its launch base after completing its flight, giving engineers the chance to examine how heat shields and structures held up during reentry into Earth's atmosphere.
The question now is how much patience investors will extend for a capital-intensive rebuild. The company will offer its next data point on October 20, 2026, when it publishes third-quarter 2026 operational and financial results after the market close, followed by a management webcast. Whether a dense run of government contracts and Starship progress can steady the shares may depend on how management navigates the triple balancing act of spaceflight, geopolitics and a terrestrial mobile network.
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