SpaceX's First Earnings Call Collides With a $116 Billion Lock-Up Wave
Published on 08/02/2026 at 21:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The calendar could hardly be crueler for SpaceX's debut as a public company. On Tuesday, August 4, the company will report quarterly results after the closing bell for the first time since its June IPO — and just two days later, restrictions lift on roughly 911.5 million shares valued at nearly $116 billion. That's a supply overhang larger than the entire current free float of about 640 million shares, and it lands squarely on top of a stock already trading near its 52-week low.
A stock under pressure before the numbers even hit
The market's mood is already sour. Shares closed Friday at €93.96, down 3.48 percent on the day and just 0.59 percent above their 52-week trough. The stock sits 51.68 percent below the June high it reached shortly after listing. With a 14-day relative strength index of 31.0, the tape is flashing oversold — a condition that often precedes sharp reversals, though the looming lock-up expiry gives bulls reason to hesitate before calling a bottom.
Morgan Stanley has gone so far as to warn that this represents the "most dangerous phase" since the IPO, given that earnings and the lock-up expiration land within 48 hours of each other. The concern is straightforward: fresh supply hitting the market at the same moment investors digest the company's first official financials as a listed entity could compound selling pressure.
What the numbers are expected to show
Wall Street's consensus points to second-quarter revenue of roughly $6.9 billion, a 68 percent year-over-year jump. Earnings per share estimates range from a loss of $0.23 to $0.35. Starlink remains the engine room: the satellite internet division contributed $3.3 billion in the first quarter, backed by 10.3 million subscribers — roughly 70 percent of total group revenue. The AI business, anchored by contracts with Anthropic and Alphabet, is still a minor revenue contributor but is projected to expand from $818 million to around $2.18 billion, with AI-related capital expenditures alone expected to hit about $7.7 billion. Total capex is forecast at approximately $12.94 billion for the quarter.
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The full-year 2025 picture shows a net loss of $4.9 billion on revenue of $18.7 billion, with investment spending climbing to roughly $21 billion. Morgan Stanley doesn't see positive free cash flow until 2035, projecting cumulative capital needs of around $700 billion by then. Even so, the most bullish forecasts call for revenue of $80 billion by 2027 — a trajectory that would require near-doubling growth over the next two years.
Wall Street split down the middle
The analyst community is anything but unified. Cantor Fitzgerald's Colin Canfield reaffirmed his $246 price target ahead of the print, citing AI momentum and Starlink's growth trajectory. Across the 37 analyst ratings tracked, the median target sits at $225 — implying more than a doubling from current levels. Morningstar takes the opposite view, valuing the stock at just $62 and pointing to a valuation that recently stood at roughly 75 times sales. The gap between those figures underscores how differently the Street weighs Starlink's cash flow potential against the billions being poured into AI ventures.
Jefferies' Aniket Shah waded into the debate this week, pushing back on governance-focused critics who avoid the stock. He argued that investors clinging to formal checklists risk missing long-term gains — a stance that pits growth believers against those troubled by the company's control structure and persistent losses.
Short sellers are circling in record numbers
Bearish positioning has reached extraordinary levels. As of late July, short interest stood at 219.3 million shares — more than 34 percent of the free float — with a market value exceeding $26 billion. Few large-cap US companies are currently shorted as heavily. The upcoming lock-up release, which dwarfs the existing float, could give short sellers additional ammunition if it triggers forced or opportunistic selling.
The retail crowd has other questions
While institutions focus on free cash flow trajectories and capital requirements, SpaceX's substantial retail shareholder base — roughly 30 percent of IPO shares went to individual investors — appears to have different priorities. The company opened an online forum ahead of its first earnings call, and the most popular questions centered on more Starship footage, the role of the Shiba Inu mascot "Asteroid," and whether the rocket could be painted pink. A question about AI business profitability ranked just 183rd in popularity.
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Ark Invest, meanwhile, has been using the recent pullback to build a position. Cathie Wood's firm views SpaceX as a "critical building block for the space economy," projecting gross profits in the hundreds of billions by 2030, driven primarily by Starlink. A Motley Fool analyst offered a more cautious take, suggesting the entry point still looks premature. At roughly 77 times sales, SpaceX's valuation actually exceeds Palantir's 57 times — evidence that the market continues to price in ambitious growth despite the recent share price slide.
A merger rumor adds noise
Adding to the uncertainty is a Wall Street Journal report that Tesla is exploring a sale or spin-off of its China business to clear the path for a potential combination with SpaceX. Elon Musk dismissed the story as "absurd fake news" but notably did not rule out the merger speculation itself. The exchange left institutional investors parsing the statement for signals while the rumor mill continues to churn.
The webcast is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday via X. By Wednesday morning, investors will have their first real look at whether SpaceX's operational momentum can outweigh the gravitational pull of a $116 billion share unlock — and whether the stock's oversold condition marks an opportunity or a trap.
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