SpaceX's First Earnings Report Arrives as a $24 Billion Bearish Bet Collides With a Share Flood
Published on 08/03/2026 at 15:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX is about to face its most consequential week since going public in June, and the market's positioning suggests investors are bracing for turbulence rather than celebration. Short sellers have piled into the stock at a pace rarely seen, while a massive lock-up expiry threatens to unleash hundreds of millions of additional shares into a market that has already pushed the equity deep into oversold territory.
The company will release its inaugural quarterly report as a listed entity on Tuesday after the market closes, followed just two days later by the expiration of the first lock-up tranche. The convergence of these two events has turned the stock into one of the most heavily contested trades on Wall Street.
Bearish Bets Reach Unprecedented Levels
The short interest in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. has climbed to roughly 34 percent of the free float, according to the latest data. As of late July, approximately 219.3 million shares were sold short—a staggering jump from just 23.3 million in mid-June. The aggregate value of these bearish positions now exceeds $24 billion, surpassing the short book against Tesla and underscoring just how polarized sentiment has become.
The stock closed Friday at €93.96, down 3.48 percent on the day, leaving it just 0.59 percent above its 52-week low. Over the past month, the shares have shed more than 33 percent of their value, erasing a substantial portion of the gains recorded after the June debut. In German trading on Monday, the stock slipped another 1.34 percent to €92.70, bringing the 30-day decline to 34.72 percent.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
At the Nasdaq, the equity recently touched $108.37—more than 50 percent below the all-time high of $225.64 reached shortly after the June 12 listing.
A Flood of Shares Looms
The immediate catalyst for the bearish assault is the lock-up expiry scheduled for Thursday. As many as 911.5 million shares, valued at roughly $100 billion, will become eligible for trading—approximately 1.6 times the current free float of around 555 million shares. The freely tradable portion of the company's capital is expected to expand from roughly five percent to about twelve percent as a result. Additional tranches will be released in stages extending well into 2027.
A second, price-contingent tranche of 455.8 million shares remains locked for now. Those shares only become tradable if the stock reaches $175.50—a level that appears distant given the current trading range.
What the Numbers Will Show
For the second quarter, analysts expect revenue of approximately $6.88 billion, a significant advance from the $4.69 billion reported in the first quarter. The consensus calls for a net loss of around $0.23 per share, though estimates range between $0.26 and $0.29 on the more pessimistic end. For context, SpaceX recorded a total loss of $4.9 billion last year.
Investors will be scrutinizing two key metrics at Starlink, the satellite internet division that serves as the company's primary cash generator: subscriber growth and average revenue per user. That figure has already declined from $99 in 2023 to roughly $66, raising questions about the sustainability of the division's contribution.
The counterweight to those concerns is SpaceXAI, the company's artificial intelligence segment. Analysts project revenue could triple from the $818 million recorded in the first quarter, buoyed in part by a cloud agreement with Google valued at approximately $920 million per month. Yet the capital requirements are formidable: SpaceX is believed to have invested around $10.2 billion in AI infrastructure during the second quarter alone—roughly six times the year-earlier figure. One analyst captured the central tension succinctly: Starlink's cash flow alone cannot support annual AI investments of approximately $30 billion.
Technical Signals Point Both Ways
The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 30.3, signaling a deeply oversold condition—a sign that the selling pressure of recent weeks may already be fully priced in. With annualized 30-day volatility running at 54.45 percent, even a modest positive surprise in the earnings report could force short sellers to cover their positions, potentially triggering a rapid rally.
That dynamic cuts both ways, however. If the numbers disappoint, the lock-up expiry two days later could compound the selling pressure. The stock is caught between a bearish narrative built on valuation concerns and a technical setup that historically rewards contrarian positioning.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Divergent Views on the Path Forward
The analyst community remains sharply divided. Morgan Stanley maintains a buy rating with a price target of $300, attributing $152 per share to the AI business alone. Bernstein is also positive, setting a target of $239 and basing its assessment on four pillars: the full reusability of Starship with an ambition of roughly 3,600 launches annually by 2031, semiconductor manufacturing expansion for up to 170,000 satellites, pending regulatory approvals for orbital flights, and the development of computing capacity in orbit.
The Starship program suffered a setback on July 24 when the 13th test flight successfully deployed Starlink V3 satellites but failed to achieve a complete booster landing—a blow to the long-term reusability thesis.
Skeptics point to governance concerns surrounding CEO Elon Musk, who holds approximately 80 percent of voting rights as both chief executive and chairman. A Jefferies analyst dismisses that criticism as superficial, arguing that operational metrics deserve greater attention. Others are less restrained: one fund manager sees the stock approaching the $100 mark, while a prominent market commentator has called for a "painful reality check" on the valuation.
The coming days will determine which camp proves correct. With the earnings report and lock-up expiry arriving within 48 hours of each other, the stock is set for a decisive test—one that could resolve the standoff between the bears and the bulls in a single, volatile week.
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