SpaceX's First Earnings Report Lands in the Crosshairs of a Record Short Squeeze Setup
Published on 08/03/2026 at 13:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
When SpaceX opens its books for the first time as a public company on Tuesday, it won't just be answering questions about Starlink's profitability or the burn rate of its artificial intelligence ambitions. The report lands in the middle of a two-front storm: a record wave of bearish bets and a lock-up expiry that could unleash more than 900 million shares onto the market within 48 hours.
The timing is brutal. The company's Nasdaq debut on June 12 under the ticker SPCX has already turned sour, with the stock shedding roughly half its value from the peak of $225.64 and touching a fresh record low of $108.37 on Friday. Short sellers have piled in with conviction, with short interest ballooning to approximately 219.3 million shares — worth around $24.6 billion and representing 34 percent of the free float. That's nearly a tenfold increase from the 23.3 million shares shorted in mid-June, and it surpasses the bearish positioning against Tesla.
The Numbers That Matter
The earnings release, scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, will be the first real test of whether the company's $1.4 trillion valuation can be justified by fundamentals. Analysts expect revenue between $6.7 billion and $6.9 billion for the second quarter, a substantial jump from the $4.69 billion reported in the first three months of the year. The consensus still points to a net loss per share of $0.26 to $0.29.
The central question revolves around whether Starlink's profitable satellite internet business can carry the weight of the loss-making AI division. Starlink generated $4.4 billion in operating profit last year, while SpaceXAI — the AI unit acquired in February, formerly known as xAI — posted an operating loss of $6.4 billion. The overall net loss widened to $4.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, compared with just $528 million a year earlier.
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Investors will be watching two metrics closely at Starlink: subscriber growth and average revenue per user. The customer base is expected to reach 12 million in the second quarter, up from 10.3 million in 2023, but average revenue per user has been sliding — from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of 2026. On the AI side, revenue is projected to climb from $818 million to $2.18 billion, supported in part by a Google cloud contract worth $920 million per month. Management has identified a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion attributed to artificial intelligence, according to Reuters. CEO Elon Musk has hinted at revenue growth on the scale of Tesla — between $95 billion and $104 billion — within the next 12 to 24 months.
A Lock-Up Wave Approaches
The earnings report is only half the story. On August 6, two trading days after the results, the first lock-up period expires, freeing up to 911.5 million shares — valued at roughly $100 billion and equivalent to about a fifth of the issued capital — for employees and early investors to sell. That figure exceeds the original free float from the IPO by 64 percent. Additional tranches unlock on August 20 and September 9.
A second, price-contingent tranche of 455.8 million shares remains locked until the stock reaches $175.50 — a level that currently seems distant. The first tranche alone, however, could trigger a cascade of selling if the earnings disappoint. The short interest adds another layer of complexity: if the numbers beat expectations, the combination of positive news and heavily shorted stock could force bears to cover, potentially driving a rapid rally. With 30-day annualized volatility at 54.45 percent, the setup is primed for sharp moves in either direction.
Wall Street's Divergent Views
Analyst opinions on the stock are sharply divided. Bernstein initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $239 price target, citing four factors: the full reusability of the Starship rocket, which would require roughly 3,600 launches by 2031; semiconductor capacity for 170,000 satellites using 2.8 million wafers annually from five factories valued at over $160 billion; pending regulatory approvals from the U.S. aviation authority; and Musk's ambition of one terawatt of computing power in orbit. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Overweight rating with a $300 price target, valuing the AI business alone at $152 per share.
Jefferies analyst Aniket Shah, meanwhile, has focused on the governance debate surrounding the dual-class share structure, which gives Musk more than 80 percent of voting rights and makes him effectively impossible to remove as chairman without his consent. Shah considers the criticism overblown, attributing the stock's decline instead to a broader repricing of the AI sector.
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The Technical Picture
The stock closed Friday at €93.96 in German trading, down 3.48 percent on the day and just 0.59 percent above its 52-week low. Over the past 30 days, the shares have lost more than a third of their value. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 31.0, signaling an oversold condition — though the primary article's reading of 30.7 tells a similar story. In Frankfurt on Monday, the stock was trading at €93.50, down 0.49 percent.
Capital expenditure is another concern. Investment spending is projected to rise from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion by 2028, while debt is expected to grow from $41.7 billion to $218 billion over the same period.
The next two trading days will determine which scenario plays out. Weak numbers on Tuesday followed by the lock-up expiry on Thursday could compound selling pressure. But a strong report — particularly on Starlink growth or AI revenue — arriving into one of the most crowded short positions in the market could produce the opposite effect. For a stock that has already lost half its value in seven weeks, the margin for error is thin.
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