SpaceX's First Public Earnings Arrive With a $24 Billion Short Bet and a Lock-Up Flood in the Wings
Published on 08/03/2026 at 11:03 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The countdown to SpaceX's first quarterly report as a listed company has turned into one of the most crowded trades on Wall Street. Short sellers have piled in at a pace rarely seen, and the stock is hovering just above its 52-week low, setting the stage for a week that could swing violently in either direction.
Bears have increased their positions nearly tenfold in just six weeks. As of late July, roughly 219.3 million shares were sold short — a dramatic jump from 23.3 million in mid-June. That positions the short interest at around 34 percent of the free float, with a notional value exceeding $24 billion, a figure that now eclipses the bearish bets stacked against Tesla.
A Stock Under Pressure, But Not Out of Fight
The shares closed Friday at €93.96, down 3.48 percent on the day, leaving the stock just 0.59 percent above its 52-week trough. Over the past month, the equity has shed more than a third of its value, erasing a substantial chunk of the gains accumulated since its June peak of €194.46.
Technical indicators suggest the selling may have run its course, at least for now. The 14-day relative strength index has dropped to 31.0, a reading that typically signals an oversold condition. With annualized 30-day volatility running at 54.45 percent, even a modest positive surprise in the earnings report could force short sellers to cover their positions, potentially triggering a rapid rally.
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The Calendar Collision
The immediate catalyst for the nervousness is a rare convergence of events. On Tuesday after the US market close, SpaceX will publish its second-quarter results — its first official earnings release since the multibillion-dollar IPO in June. Analysts are looking for revenue in the range of $6.7 billion to $6.9 billion, a notable step up from the $4.69 billion reported in the first quarter. The consensus still points to a net loss per share of between $0.26 and $0.29.
Two trading days later, on August 6, the first tranche of the lock-up period expires. That could release approximately 911.5 million shares onto the market — a supply wave that exceeds the original free float from the IPO by 64 percent. A second, price-contingent tranche of 455.8 million shares remains locked until the stock reaches $175.50, a level currently far out of reach.
What Investors Will Be Watching
The market's focus will center on Starlink, the satellite internet division that serves as the company's primary growth engine. Specifically, investors want to see subscriber growth and revenue per user, along with the segment's operating margin. There is also growing skepticism around the scale of capital expenditures tied to artificial intelligence and data centers. Any fresh detail on spending plans or progress with the Starship rocket system could shift sentiment considerably.
Operations Continue Uninterrupted
While the financial world waits on the numbers, SpaceX's operational tempo shows no signs of slowing. Over the weekend, a Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California carrying 24 Starlink satellites, with the first stage successfully landing on a recovery ship in the Pacific.
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Adding an unusual twist to the week, a spent Falcon 9 upper stage from a launch earlier in 2025 is expected to impact the Moon near the Einstein crater on Wednesday. The collision is unintentional — a piece of space debris meeting lunar surface — but agencies such as South Korea's KARI plan to observe the event to study crater formation in lunar rock.
A Week That Could Go Either Way
The coming days pack three market-relevant events into a tight window: the earnings release on Tuesday, the lunar impact on Wednesday, and the lock-up expiry on Thursday. For a stock already carrying one of the heaviest short positions in the market, the combination of a weak report and a supply overhang could deepen the selling pressure. But if SpaceX beats expectations on revenue or Starlink growth, the positive news would land on a stock that many bears have bet against — a setup that could produce a sharp squeeze to the upside.
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