SpaceX's Lock-Up Calendar Collides With Record Launch Tempo and a $60 Billion AI Bet
Published on 08/20/2026 at 06:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shareholders are bracing for another wave of supply as the company's second major lock-up expiration takes effect, with 319 million restricted shares set to become tradable. The anticipation alone proved costly on Wednesday, when the stock shed 3.5 percent to close at EUR 119.66, as traders and institutional holders trimmed positions ahead of the scheduled unlock.
The release represents roughly 7 percent of restricted stock and marks the second tranche of the staggered lock-up schedule that began after the company's June 12 IPO. Early August saw the first post-lock-up period expire, freeing 911.5 million shares — about 20 percent of locked-up holdings. Interestingly, that initial unlock was met with a 6.1 percent gain rather than the sell-off many had predicted, leaving investors to wonder whether history will repeat itself.
The supply overhang isn't going away anytime soon. Another roughly 700 million shares are slated for release on September 1, which could keep pressure on the stock through the coming weeks. Over the past seven days, the shares have fallen 2.4 percent, though they remain up 10 percent on a monthly basis. The stock still sits 38 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 194.46.
A $60 Billion All-Stock Acquisition Adds to the Mix
Compounding the lock-up dynamics, SpaceX completed its acquisition of Anysphere — the developer behind the Cursor coding assistant — on August 14. The all-stock deal, valued at approximately $60 billion, saw the company issue 389,289,254 new Class A shares, further expanding the share count and adding to investor caution. The transaction is designed to embed machine learning more deeply into the company's aerospace software pipelines.
Regulatory filings have also shed light on the institutional heavyweight backing the stock. Alphabet holds 551.2 million shares, Fidelity owns 302.6 million, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund controls 154.1 million, and Nvidia holds 123 million shares.
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Record-Breaking Launch Tempo Continues
Operationally, SpaceX shows no signs of slowing. The company completed its 100th mission of the year on Wednesday with the Starlink 17-50 launch from Vandenberg Space Force Base — the third consecutive year it has hit that milestone. That tally includes 97 Falcon 9 flights. The Starlink constellation now numbers more than 11,000 satellites.
Earlier in the month, SpaceX set a new record for the shortest interval between two launches, with a 38.5-minute gap on August 15 covering a Globalstar satellite mission and a US Space Force contract. Meanwhile, the Starship program is approaching a pivotal moment: a first orbital launch attempt is targeted for late August, during which SpaceX hopes to deploy Starlink V3 satellites for the first time. CEO Elon Musk flagged the timeline during the company's August 4 earnings call, with plans also calling for an attempt to catch the upper stage at the launch site, pending regulatory approval.
Not everything has gone smoothly. NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter confirmed an 18-meter-wide crater near the Einstein crater on the Moon, caused by the impact of an out-of-control Falcon 9 upper stage in early August. And Starship Ship 40, which splashed down in the Indian Ocean in late July, has been towed to Christmas Island for technical inspection.
Strong Revenue Growth, Heavy Investment Burden
The quarterly results delivered on August 4 painted a mixed picture. Revenue surged 92 percent year-over-year to $7.8 billion in the second quarter, with the high-margin Starlink business growing 66 percent and AI-related revenue jumping 247 percent. Yet the company remained unprofitable, posting a net loss of $541 million — a significant improvement from the $4.3 billion deficit in the first quarter.
The red ink stems from aggressive capital spending on AI infrastructure. SpaceX poured $18.4 billion into capital expenditures during the quarter, well above the $13 billion analysts had expected. Musk nonetheless struck an optimistic tone, pulling forward his revenue forecast of $1 trillion from 2031 to 2030, with a "non-zero" chance of hitting that mark by 2029.
Analysts Split on Valuation
Wall Street remains divided on the stock's prospects. UBS reiterated its buy rating on Wednesday with a $210 price target, citing Starlink subscriber growth as a key value driver. Bernstein raised its target from $240 to $248 on Tuesday, maintaining an overweight rating and pointing to the potential of orbital AI data centers. Argus upgraded the stock from hold to buy on August 7, setting a price target of $160, and expressed confidence in the rapid payback of AI investments given robust growth in computing capacity.
At the other end of the spectrum, Phillip Securities issued a sell rating in mid-August with a price target of just $75, questioning the sustainability of the company's revenue streams. The next quarterly results are scheduled for November 3, which will offer investors a fresh read on whether the operational momentum can eventually translate into profitability.
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