SpaceX's Lock-Up Defies Gravity: What a 911.5 Million-Share Flood Says About the Bull Case
Published on 08/10/2026 at 05:20 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The mechanics of a post-IPO lock-up expiry are usually predictable: a wall of newly tradable shares hits the market, insiders cash out, and the stock pays the price. SpaceX just flipped that script with enough force to add roughly $327 billion in market value over two sessions, per The Star's calculations. The question now is whether the rebound is a one-off technical event or the opening salvo of a sustained re-rating.
Friday's close in Germany put the stock at €115.14, up 15.66% on the day and 15.84% for the week. The monthly picture remains less flattering, with the shares still down 9.48% over 30 days and roughly 41% below the 52-week high set on June 16, 2026. In other words, the bounce is real but has yet to erase the post-IPO drawdown.
When a Supply Shock Becomes a Demand Signal
The catalyst arrived on Thursday, when approximately 911.5 million shares held by employees and early backers were released from their first post-IPO lock-up. The free float jumped 143% to 1.55 billion shares. Conventional wisdom suggested a wave of selling; instead, the stock climbed roughly 23% across the two subsequent trading days.
Historical data offers some context for why the panic never materialized. Academic work on lock-up expirations spanning four decades puts the average share-price reaction on these dates at just minus 1.5%, largely because markets tend to price in the coming supply in advance. SpaceX's move suggests demand for the stock is absorbing the new supply — and then some. A further 7% of shares unlock on August 20, with additional tranches following through December 8.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The Analyst Spectrum Is Unusually Wide
Wall Street's response to the rally has produced one of the more striking divergences in recent memory. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas reaffirmed an "Overweight" rating with a $300 price target — implying roughly 125% upside from the recent U.S. close of $133.11. Jonas points to the AI business as the primary value driver, estimating it accounts for more than half of the company's fair value, and cites a $100 billion cash reserve alongside a $47.5 billion order backlog.
At the other end of the spectrum sits Piper Sandler with a $140 target, the most cautious stance in the group. In between, Goldman Sachs rates the stock "Buy" with a $220 target — a 65% upside call — and notably drew a comparison to Palantir, which it rates only neutral. Argus Research sits at $160, Wells Fargo at $215, Cantor Fitzgerald at $246, and Needham at $250. The consensus across 31 analysts lands at $229.54, though individual targets range from $75 to $800. JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth recently lifted his 12-month target from $225 to $240, citing second-quarter strength and AI-segment growth, while Bernstein initiated coverage with an "Outperform" and a $239 target, highlighting Starship's reusability and the company's computing capacity as key value drivers.
The Numbers Behind the Narrative
The fundamental backdrop supports at least part of the optimism. Second-quarter revenue came in at $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year and comfortably ahead of the $6.81 billion consensus. The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or $0.09 per share, versus roughly $1.0 billion in the year-ago quarter.
The AI segment delivered $2.56 billion in revenue, a 247% jump, though it still posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion — the secondary article rounds this to $1.3 billion. The drag reflects the capital intensity of the buildout: of $18.4 billion in total quarterly capital expenditures, $15.83 billion went to AI infrastructure. That spending pace is up 550% year over year, and critics note that reaching the company's 20-gigawatt AI computing target by 2028 could require at least $400 billion in cumulative investment. At roughly 17 times current-year revenue, the valuation leaves little room for execution missteps.
Starlink, by contrast, is already contributing positively. The satellite-internet unit reached 12 million paying subscribers — double its base since August of last year — and delivered $1.66 billion in operating profit. Elon Musk has said the gigabit-capable "V3" satellites will first reach operational orbit on the upcoming "Starship Flight 14" mission, following the successful "Starship Flight 13" in late July, which deployed 20 V3 satellites and further tested the Super Heavy booster's recovery system.
Terafab Adds a New Variable
Over the weekend, SpaceX and Tesla confirmed a joint venture that could reshape the capex debate: Terafab, a chip fabrication facility spanning roughly 100 million square feet in Grimes County, Texas. The first phase carries a $16.8 billion price tag, with the goal of exceeding one terawatt of computing capacity annually. Intel is slated to handle manufacturing using its 14A process. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has already approved the associated tax agreements after two affected school districts signed off; formal execution before construction begins is the next step.
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The launch calendar remains busy as well. Nine Globalstar 2-R satellites are scheduled to fly on a Falcon 9 on August 15, followed by the Dragon CRS-2 SpX-35 resupply mission to the International Space Station for NASA on August 30. Mid-September brings Crew-13, the thirteenth operational crewed flight to the ISS.
A Legal Subplot Emerges
The rally has also drawn attention to a dispute that underscores how much value has been created since the IPO. Investment firm Late Stage Capital is reportedly in conflict with early investors over pre-IPO shares sold in 2024 at valuations well below the eventual listing price. SpaceX went public in June with 555 million shares at $135 each, giving it an initial market capitalization of roughly $1.8 trillion.
The near-term path for the stock likely hinges on whether the AI buildout can convert its impressive revenue growth into profitability at a pace that justifies the current multiple. The lock-up test has been passed, but the next unlock dates — and the Terafab construction timeline — will provide the next set of clues.
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