SpaceX's Post-IPO Rebound Faces Its Next Test as August 20 Lock-Up Looms
Published on 08/10/2026 at 11:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The recent surge in SpaceX shares has done little to settle one of the most fractious debates on Wall Street this summer. With bullish price targets stretching from $140 to $300 and a chorus of skeptics questioning the math behind the company's valuation, investors are bracing for what comes next: another wave of share unlocks that could test the resilience of the current rally.
In German trading, the stock changed hands at €117.86 on Monday, up 2.36% from the prior session. That leaves the equity roughly 39% below its 52-week high of €194.46, set on June 16. The bounce of recent days has narrowed the gap, but the journey back to the post-IPO euphoria peak remains steep.
The Bull Case: AI Growth and a Cash War Chest
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest made a notable move on Friday, purchasing 114,815 SpaceX shares through the ARK Innovation ETF at a cost of approximately $13.2 million — the same day the stock jumped 15.83% to $133.11 in U.S. trading. ARK has accumulated several million shares since the IPO, holdings now valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Argus Research followed suit, upgrading its rating from Hold to Buy with a $160 price target. The firm's optimism rests on Starlink's second-quarter operating profit of $1.66 billion, supported by 12 million subscribers, alongside new cloud contracts worth $14.1 billion in Q2 and an additional $6.7 billion booked early in the third quarter.
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Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas has gone further, reaffirming an Overweight rating with a $300 target — implying roughly 125% upside from Friday's U.S. close. Jonas argues that the AI business accounts for more than half of the company's fair value, pointing to a $100 billion cash reserve and a $47.5 billion order backlog. Goldman Sachs, which rates the stock Buy with a $220 target, drew a comparison to Palantir in its analysis — though it only rates that company Neutral. Wells Fargo ($215), Cantor Fitzgerald ($246), and Needham ($250) all sit in the bullish camp.
The consensus across 31 analysts tracked by Morgan Stanley stands at $229.54, with individual targets ranging from $75 to $800. Piper Sandler remains the most cautious voice, sticking with a Neutral rating and a $140 target.
The Bear Case: Valuation and Burn Rates
Not everyone is convinced. Kevin O'Leary, who sat out the IPO, says he is watching for an entry zone between $100 and $110 before committing capital, citing the volatility of recent weeks as a reason for patience. NYU professor Aswath Damodaran has framed the challenge more philosophically: valuing SpaceX, he argues, is like predicting college success from kindergarten report cards — the assumptions in such a speculative field are inherently unreliable.
The numbers give skeptics ammunition. While AI revenue grew 247% year-over-year to $2.56 billion in the second quarter, the segment posted an operating loss of $1.3 billion, translating to a loss margin of roughly 58%. Total revenue climbed 92% to $7.81 billion, but the company still recorded a net loss of $541 million. Capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion in the quarter — up 550% from the prior year — with $15.83 billion funneled into AI infrastructure, including Tesla Megapacks for the Colossus data centers near Memphis.
Critics also point to the capital required to sustain the trajectory: at least $400 billion through 2028 to hit the targeted 20 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. At roughly 17 times forward annual revenue, the valuation leaves little room for execution missteps.
Lock-Up Dynamics Shift the Narrative
The immediate catalyst for Friday's rally was the expiration of an insider lock-up on August 6, which released approximately 911.5 million shares and increased the freely tradable float by 143% to 1.55 billion shares. Many had anticipated a sell-off; instead, the stock climbed roughly 23% over the two subsequent trading days. Historical data on lock-up expirations suggests the average price reaction on such dates is only minus 1.5% over four decades of observations, as markets typically price in the additional supply in advance.
Since the first lock-up expired last Thursday, the stock has gained 18.4%. The company's first post-IPO earnings report, released just over a week ago, contributed an additional 8.3% gain.
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The next test arrives on August 20, when another 319 million shares — about 7% of the company — become eligible for sale. September and October each bring roughly 700 million additional shares into the tradable pool, with further unlocks scheduled through December 8.
Terafab Adds a New Growth Dimension
Amid the analyst debate, SpaceX and Tesla confirmed on Sunday a joint venture to build a chip fabrication facility in Grimes County, Texas. The Terafab project, spanning approximately 100 million square feet, carries a first-phase price tag of $16.8 billion and aims to deliver more than a terawatt of compute capacity annually. Intel is slated to handle manufacturing using its 14A process. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has approved the associated tax agreements following consent from two affected school districts, with formal signing pending before construction begins.
Whether the bulls or the bears ultimately prevail may hinge on how quickly the company can convert its massive AI investments into profitable growth — and whether the August 20 unlock triggers the selling pressure that failed to materialize earlier this month.
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