SpaceX's Rally Faces Its Next Test: 319 Million Shares Unlock as Bulls and Bears Dig In
Published on 08/17/2026 at 18:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The recovery in SpaceX's stock has been nothing short of dramatic. After a brutal stretch that wiped out more than $600 billion in market value within three trading days and briefly pushed the shares below their IPO price, the equity has clawed back over 30 percent from its low. On Monday, the stock jumped 6.2 percent to €128.52, extending a weekly advance to 7.2 percent and bringing the 30-day gain to 19 percent.
Yet even after that rebound, the shares sit roughly 34 percent below their 52-week high of €194.46 — a reminder of how far the selloff carried. The annualized 30-day volatility of 93 percent tells its own story: this remains a stock that moves hard in both directions, and the debate over whether the post-IPO plunge was an overreaction or a fair reckoning with valuation is far from settled.
A Rare Moment of Analyst Polarization
Few stocks split the analyst community as sharply as SpaceX right now. UBS's John Hodulik reaffirmed a Buy rating on Monday with a $210 price target, pointing to Starlink's growth runway. He projects US subscriber numbers climbing from 3 million today to 6 million by the end of 2027 and 20 million by 2031. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas goes further, framing the recent pullback as a buying opportunity and floating a doubling of the stock, with a bull-case target of $600.
On the other side sits Phillip Securities, which maintains a Sell rating and a $75 price target — a 47 percent discount to current levels. The firm flags customer concentration in the AI business: a single AI client accounted for 19.5 percent of second-quarter revenue, up from under 10 percent a year earlier. Cloud customers, the firm notes, can exit with just 90 days' notice. The broader consensus, however, remains firmly bullish: 28 of 35 analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average price target of $227.
The Numbers That Feed Both Camps
The quarterly results, reported August 5, offer ammunition for both sides. Revenue more than doubled to $7.8 billion, comfortably beating the $6.9 billion consensus, while the per-share loss of $0.09 came in far better than the $0.26 analysts had expected. Starlink grew 66 percent to $4.29 billion, and the AI segment exploded 250 percent to $2.6 billion.
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But the cost of that growth is stark. The operating loss widened to $542 million, and capital expenditures hit 2.4 times revenue — $18.37 billion in total, including $15.83 billion for AI infrastructure. That spending, funded largely through debt, is widely seen as the primary driver of the earlier selloff. JPMorgan raised its price target to $240 from $225 on August 5, citing "extreme vertical integration" and a potential $100 billion AI revenue opportunity by 2027. Wells Fargo, on the same day, cut its target to $215 from $230, pointing to the sixfold quarterly jump in investment. Citi's John Godyn, after the strong operational numbers, lifted his 2026 and 2027 estimates on August 13 and kept a Buy rating with a $200 target.
Record Launch Cadence and a $60 Billion Bet on Cursor
The operational story has rarely been stronger. Over the weekend, SpaceX launched two Falcon 9 rockets from Florida and California just 38.5 minutes apart on August 15 — for Globalstar and the US Space Force — shattering the previous record of 65 minutes between orbital flights. That cadence matters for investors: it underpins the growth ambitions in both Starlink and AI.
On August 14, SpaceX closed its $60 billion acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor, paid in Class A common stock. Internal projections point to $2.6 billion in AI-segment revenue for the second quarter of 2026, with 1.4 gigawatts of installed compute capacity, rising to over 2 gigawatts by year-end. CEO Elon Musk said in a podcast that total revenue should now exceed $1 trillion by 2030 — a year earlier than previously guided.
Government contracts add another layer of support. NASA extended its astronaut transport contract to the International Space Station through year-end on August 9, and a VinSpace agreement from August 11 covers the launch of Vietnam's first satellites in 2027. The big Space Force and Air Force awards date back to the spring — they demonstrate continuity rather than fresh August wins.
Short Sellers Retreat, But the Lockup Looms
The options market is flashing a more constructive signal. Short interest as a share of free float has collapsed from a peak of 34 percent last week to roughly 11 percent, a sign that the recovery has squeezed bears who bet against the stock.
The next test arrives August 20, when a lockup expiry makes roughly 319 million additional shares tradable. The market has already had one scare on this front: when the first lockup tranche of 911.5 million shares became tradable earlier this month, the expected wave of selling never materialized, and the stock recovered above the €135 level between August 6 and 15. Friday's close of €120.96, down 1.2 percent on the day, still left the stock up 12 percent over 30 days.
Technically, $150 in US trading remains the key resistance level. The upcoming Starship Flight 14, targeted for late August, could add fresh catalysts — it aims to deploy operational Starlink V3 satellites and attempt a booster catch. For now, SpaceX remains a stock defined by extraordinary growth and equally extraordinary valuation uncertainty, with the lockup expiry set to test whether the recent calm can hold.
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