SpaceX's Twin Engine: Pentagon Contracts and an AI Pivot That Has Analysts Drawing Battle Lines
Published on 08/12/2026 at 17:53 | Redaktion boerse-global.deThe transformation of SpaceX from launch-services provider to artificial-intelligence infrastructure play is no longer a subplot—it is the main narrative, and the market is struggling to price the transition. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas has sketched a bull-case scenario of $600 per share, more than double the bank's official $300 target, while the average view across 32 analysts tracked by the firm sits at a far more conservative $227. The gap between those numbers captures the fundamental tension in the stock right now: how much of the AI story is real, and how much is narrative momentum?
The catalyst for the widening analyst divergence is the $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the company behind the AI coding platform Cursor, which is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026. Morgan Stanley projects Cursor will contribute $2.5 billion in additional revenue this year, scaling to $13 billion by 2027. The platform's annualized revenue run rate is forecast to hit $8 billion by year-end and $33 billion by 2030, with the bank noting that more than 60 percent of Fortune 500 companies already use the tool.
Argus Research has taken a more measured stance, upgrading SpaceX to "Buy" with a $160 price target, anchored in the roughly $16 billion the company poured into AI infrastructure during the second quarter. That spending is producing tangible results: computing capacity jumped from 0.4 to 1.4 gigawatts, with a two-gigawatt threshold expected before the end of the year. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen has pegged the payback period for new data centers at approximately one year—an unusually fast return that lends credibility to the expansion pace.
CEO Elon Musk has been characteristically aggressive in framing what comes next. At an internal address, he reportedly told staff that AI would account for "99 percent of the value" of SpaceX within five years, and that the company aims to bring 10 gigawatts of AI computing capacity online by the end of 2027. He has also claimed that AI revenue will surpass all other income streams starting in September, with the gap widening in the fourth quarter, and has floated a $500 billion total revenue target for 2028.
The market's response to this ambition has been volatile. The stock climbed 4.2 percent to €120.40 on Wednesday, extending a seven-day rally of 28.8 percent. That recovery follows a brutal stretch that left the shares trading roughly 38 percent below the June record high of €194.46—a gap that underscores how far the equity had fallen during the AI spending scare.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
That scare had a specific trigger. In early August, the stock dropped 14 percent in a single session after SpaceX reported second-quarter capital expenditures of $18.4 billion for AI infrastructure. The quarter itself, however, was strong: revenue rose 92 percent to $7.814 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $6.93 billion, while adjusted EBITDA surged 191 percent to $3.538 billion. The net loss narrowed to $541 million, and the per-share loss of 9 cents came in well ahead of the expected 24-cent deficit. The AI segment alone grew 247 percent to $2.6 billion in revenue.
The Pentagon has provided a counterweight to the AI narrative with old-fashioned defense contracts. SpaceX was awarded $8.1 billion in missile-defense work, including $2.29 billion for the Space Data Network and $4.16 billion for a space-based radar constellation designed to detect moving air targets. These awards reinforce the traditional space and defense business even as Musk redirects the company's strategic center of gravity toward computing.
The infrastructure buildout extends beyond data centers. SpaceX and Tesla are jointly developing a semiconductor plant called "Terafab" in Texas's Grimes County, a $16.8 billion project aimed at producing logic and memory chips for AI systems. The company has also integrated xAI and operates the Colossus computing cluster in Tennessee, while a partnership with Nvidia centers on Vera Rubin NVL723 systems. SpaceX is developing its own satellite payloads for orbital AI applications under the Starmind AI1 program.
Starlink continues to expand its consumer base, with leaked internal figures showing more than 13 million residential customers and 22 million monthly users of Starlink Mobile—up from 12 million subscribers at the end of the second quarter. The company completed its 50th launch of the year from Vandenberg Space Force Base in early August, bringing the active satellite constellation to 10,923.
Regulatory momentum has also picked up. The FAA approved up to 25 Starship launches and 25 landings per year at the Boca Chica, Texas site, and has proposed streamlining commercial launch approvals by exempting certain missions from 13 federal laws. Meanwhile, reports from The Guardian indicate SpaceX is pursuing the acquisition of roughly 130,000 hectares in Louisiana's Vermilion Parish for a new Starship facility, despite environmental opposition.
Skepticism remains part of the picture. Morningstar describes a $154 scenario as a "moonshot" with only seven percent probability, and the stock's recent trading pattern reflects the uncertainty—it closed Tuesday at €115.50, down 3.62 percent, though still up 23.58 percent on the week. Johnsen has set an annualized revenue run rate target of $100 billion by year-end, a figure Deutsche Bank calls "very achievable." Whether the Cursor acquisition and the AI capacity expansion can deliver at the promised pace will ultimately be tested in the coming quarters, when the gap between analyst targets and actual results narrows.
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