SpaceX's Two-Sided Recovery: IPO Price Reclaimed, But the Tesla Merger Question Lingers
Published on 08/11/2026 at 16:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The past week has delivered a striking turnaround for SpaceX shareholders. After a turbulent debut that saw the stock dip below its listing price, the shares have now clawed their way back above the 135 US-Dollar IPO mark — a level that seemed distant just a fortnight ago. Monday's session closed up 4.06 percent at 119.82 Euro, extending a rebound that has now accumulated roughly 10.1 percent since the company's first earnings report as a publicly traded entity.
What makes the recovery particularly notable is what didn't happen. When the lock-up period for insider share sales expired last Thursday, releasing more than 900 million shares onto the market, the conventional wisdom suggested a wave of selling pressure. Instead, the stock surged — gaining 20.4 percent since that expiry — a move the market has interpreted as a vote of confidence from investors who chose to hold rather than cash out.
The Earnings Catalyst That Nearly Derailed Everything
The current rally traces its roots back to a moment of acute anxiety. When SpaceX published its second-quarter results — its inaugural report as a listed company — the immediate reaction was brutal. CNBC and Reuters both reported after-hours declines of roughly 7 to 8 percent. The culprit wasn't the operational story, which was genuinely strong: revenue came in at 7.8 billion US-Dollar, up 92 percent year-over-year from 4.1 billion and comfortably ahead of the 6.9 billion consensus estimate. The per-share loss of 9 US cents also beat the 26-cent hit analysts had braced for.
The problem was the investment figure. Capital expenditures of 18.37 billion US-Dollar spooked the market, which initially read the number as a warning sign about cost discipline. The optics improved considerably when company representatives confirmed a partnership with Nvidia in the data-center chip space — a tie-up that explains a meaningful portion of the spending and underpins the ambitious growth narrative that CEO Elon Musk has been pushing.
Musk Pulls the Target Forward
In a bid to steady nerves, Musk accelerated his long-term revenue goal. Rather than waiting until 2031, SpaceX now aims to hit one trillion US-Dollar in annual revenue by 2030, according to CNBC. The timing was deliberate: the announcement landed while the stock was still wobbling after the earnings-induced slide, and it has been credited with helping to anchor the subsequent recovery.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Analyst sentiment has shifted in tandem. Argus upgraded the stock on Friday, citing the potential of the company's AI investments. The stock responded with a 10 percent gain in early trading that day, building on the roughly 17 percent it had already accumulated over the preceding five sessions.
Wall Street's Divergent Scenarios
The valuation debate has now crystallized into an unusually wide spectrum. Morgan Stanley maintains a price target of 300 US-Dollar but sees room for 600 US-Dollar in a bullish scenario, driven in part by SpaceX's roughly 60 billion US-Dollar acquisition of the AI company Cursor. That all-stock deal, expected to close by the end of August, is projected to contribute an additional 2.5 billion US-Dollar in revenue in 2026 and 13 billion US-Dollar in 2027.
The bear case is starkly different. The same analysts warn that a decline to 100 US-Dollar would imply investors are valuing SpaceX's entire AI business at zero — despite a projected AI revenue stream of roughly 319 billion US-Dollar by 2030. Morgan Stanley's official bear-case target sits at 75 US-Dollar, leaving a 75-to-600 US-Dollar range that underscores just how divergent investor interpretations of the young, loss-making AI segment have become.
The Tesla Merger Speculation
Adding another layer of uncertainty is a fresh report from the Wall Street Journal about Elon Musk's compensation package at Tesla. The package, worth roughly one trillion US-Dollar, reportedly contains a clause that would accelerate payouts in the event of a change of control — such as a merger with SpaceX. A prediction market currently puts the probability of a formal merger announcement by December 31 at 17.5 percent. Neither Musk nor either company has confirmed the scenario.
For shareholders of both companies, a combination would represent a profound structural shift, bringing together two of the most valuable corporations in the United States. The prediction-market figure suggests investors view it as plausible but far from probable.
A Stock Defined by Extremes
The current trading picture reflects this bifurcation. The stock sits at 116.50 Euro, down 2.77 percent on the day, yet still up 7.08 percent on the week. The post-lock-up surge of 17.0 percent — or 20.4 percent depending on the measurement window — has been driven by the absence of the feared selling pressure rather than any single fundamental catalyst.
The volatility metrics tell their own story: with an annualized 30-day fluctuation range of 89.79 percent, SpaceX ranks among the most volatile large-cap stocks in the market. The shares now sit 31.61 percent above their 52-week low from early August, though they remain well below the June high.
What investors are left with is a company with two distinct personalities. On one side sits the established, profitable Starlink satellite business. On the other lies a margin-thin but fast-growing AI segment whose valuation can swing by multiples depending on which scenario one chooses to believe. The Tesla merger speculation adds an unconfirmed variable to an already complex equation — and the market's mood swings suggest investors are still trying to figure out which face of SpaceX they're actually pricing.
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